U.S. Non-farm Payrolls (November 2019)
Posted on: 2019-10-31 • By BCR Market Event


Date                     Time (GMT)       Previous             Consensus

01 Nov 2019       12:30 PM            136K                     85K


The US non-farm payrolls increased 136K in September 2019, following an upwardly revised 168 thousand rise in August and missing market expectations of 145 thousand. Employment continued to trend up in health care and in professional and business services. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate decreased to 3.5% in September from 3.7% in the previous month, which is better than market expectations of 3.7%. 


In the wages category, average hourly earnings (YoY) decreased to 2.9% in September. The Fed is watching the labor component as it seeks to meet its inflation target. The Non-farm payrolls for October was scheduled to be released on 01 Nov 2019. The market expectation has declined to 85K compared to the last release. It is expected to be reduced by the impact of the General Motors strike during the payroll count. The total impact could be as high as 80,000 when laid off workers in related industries are included.


U.S. Non-farm Payrolls (thousand)


The ADP employment change in August has been announced yesterday. Private businesses in the US hired 125 thousand workers in October 2019, more than an expected 120 thousand and compared to September's downwardly revised 93 thousand. 


According to the correlation between ADP employment change and Non-farm payrolls, the ADP reading will affect tomorrow’s Non-farm payrolls announcement.


U.S. ADP Employment Changes (thousand)



Technical View


The Dollar Index (DXY) recently found its barrier at 97.49, the price return to its bearish stance after its failure to breakthrough 100-day SMA. In the 4 hours timeframe, MACD is regaining bearish momentum and RSI is moving close to the oversold territory. Focus on 96.70 first support level for further movement. If the price breakthrough the 96.70 support level, the greenback would turning its direction from North to South in the mid-term. 


Dollar Index H4 Chart