Dollar Index

The US dollar index surged to 99.88 in Asia on Wednesday, before falling back sharply to 99.00, as US Treasury Secretary Benson hinted that trade tensions would ease, which stimulated optimism in the stock market and boosted the dollar. The US dollar index recorded a good gain on Tuesday, reversing some of the pessimism at the beginning of the week, despite the overall mixed performance of US yields. The US dollar successfully regained strong upward momentum in trading with major currencies, despite continued tariff concerns and tensions between Trump and Powell. The rebound in the US dollar index occurred as the market reopened after the Easter holiday and the market re-evaluated the broader macro environment. However, due to President Trump's continued attacks on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, market concerns about the autonomy of the Federal Reserve re-heated, limiting the attempt to rise.

The technical picture of the US dollar index remains extremely bearish. Despite the mid-week rise, the overall structure shows no signs of a sustained rebound. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a technical indicator on the daily chart, is below 32, showing a potential oversold rebound signal. Likewise, the Williams Percent Range is at −91.15, providing a buy signal, although short-term oscillators such as the Stochastic RSI Fast remain neutral. Momentum continues to favor sellers. The MACD remains in sell mode, and the key moving averages further reinforce this bias. Immediate support is at 98.33. A break below this level could re-expose the 97.73 area. Above, resistance is at 99.88 {Wednesday's high}, and 100.00 {market psychological level}, a break of which points to 100.52 {14-day moving average}, both of which are near-term resistance levels. Although short-term indicators suggest a rebound, the overall trend remains fragile amid ongoing political and economic tensions that are not resolved.

Today, you may consider shorting the US dollar index around 99.80, stop loss: 99.90, target: 99.40, 99.30

WTI spot crude oil

On Thursday (March 27), international oil prices rose slightly as market participants were evaluating the impact of tightening global crude oil supply and the latest US tariffs on the global economy and energy demand. WTI crude oil futures fell further to below $62.6 per barrel on Wednesday, down 9% since early April, due to the possibility that OPEC+ may continue to increase supply in the coming months. Key member Kazakhstan said it would prioritize national interests over rules set by OPEC+, suggesting that production for major consumer countries will increase and exacerbating tensions between cartel members as several countries struggle to keep production below quotas. This prompted some members to call for another increase in production in June, adding to the unexpected plan to increase production at a three-fold rate in May. At the same time, the United States imposed new restrictions on a key Iranian figure involved in the transportation of liquefied petroleum gas and crude oil, sparking speculation that sanctions could curb Iranian exports. On the demand side, global consumption expectations remain uncertain as bearish pressure from the US-China trade war conflicts with the White House's signal that tariffs may be eased.

Economic uncertainty caused by US tariffs continues to suppress market sentiment. WTI is expected to remain in the range of $58 to $65 due to ongoing trade and policy-related concerns. Although technically WTI maintains a short-term bullish trend above $63.12 {5-day moving average}, the overall situation is still fragile. Unless WTI decisively breaks through $65.00 {round mark}, and $65.02 {23-day moving average}, it will test $67.03 {50-day moving average} level. Otherwise, it tends to be cautiously bearish, especially if risk aversion in financial markets deepens. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator of the daily chart is still in the negative zone {46.50}, so the downside can focus on the round mark of $62.00 and the $60.00 {market psychological barrier} level.

Consider going long on crude oil near 61.80 today, stop loss: 61.60; target: 63.20; 63.40

Spot gold

Gold prices plunged more than 2.50% on Wednesday as risk appetite improved on a possible easing of tensions between the United States and China and U.S. President Donald Trump said he did not intend to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Gold prices traded at $3,288, having hit a daily high of $3,386. On Wednesday, spot gold fell more than 2% to $3,260. Gold prices fell after briefly hitting an all-time high of $3,500 during Tuesday's session as U.S. Treasury Secretary Benson hinted that trade tensions would ease. Benson said on Tuesday that he believed trade tensions would ease, but he said future negotiations would be a "difficult" negotiation that has not yet begun. U.S. stocks rose more than 2% and the dollar rebounded after Benson said the tariff deadlock was unsustainable. The US dollar index rose 0.7%, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. Rising stock markets and the US dollar index are negative for the gold market. Gold's gains are expected to continue and are expected to surpass $4,000 an ounce next year amid rising recession risks, higher US tariffs, and ongoing trade tensions.

From a technical perspective, gold continues to attract eager buyers on every short-term pullback, and the gold forecast remains bullish despite the fact that the price has hit significant overbought technical levels. Since bottoming out at $2,956 earlier this month, the price of gold has surged nearly 18%, and this stunning rise has been driven by a combination of fundamental factors. What the market is seeing is a classic case of a "perfect storm", gold's climb to a record $3,500 was impressive, but unsurprisingly, it has begun to retreat slightly from this psychological high, most likely due to some regular profit-taking behavior. There is no natural resistance above this level; all we have are round numbers. However, on the way down, the story is different. Initial support levels include Wednesday's low of $3,260 and $3,200, which are both likely to become support levels. For resistance, watch the $3,400 and $3,450 levels.

Consider going long on gold before 3,304 today, stop loss: 3,300; target: 3,330; 3340

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar fell slightly on Wednesday. AUD/USD stabilized after the release of preliminary data from the Australian Judo Bank Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which showed that private sector activity expanded for the seventh consecutive month in April, with continued growth in manufacturing and services output. The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's meeting from March 31 to April 1 showed that there is still uncertainty about the timing of the next interest rate adjustment. Although the board believes that the May meeting is an appropriate time to review monetary policy, it emphasized that no decision has been made in advance. AUD/USD came under pressure due to a stronger US dollar, supported by comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant, who described the ongoing tariff standoff as "unsustainable", suggesting a possible move towards de-escalation. Sentiment was further boosted by US President Trump, who assured investors that he had no intention of removing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, helping to ease concerns about central bank independence and policy direction.

AUD/USD hovered around 0.6360 on Wednesday, with technical indicators on the daily chart showing a bullish bias. The pair remains above the 10-day simple moving average (06346) while the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) remains above 50 {55.00}, both indicators pointing to continued upside momentum. On the upside, the recent four-month high of 0.6439 is an immediate resistance, which was reached on April 22. A break above this level could open the way towards the 0.6466 {200-day simple moving average} level. A decisive breakout of this area could pave the way for a move towards the 0.6500 round number mark and the five-month high of 0.6515. On the downside, initial support is at the 10-day simple moving average near 0.6346, followed by strong support at the market psychological mark near 0.6300.

Today, it is recommended to go long on the Australian dollar before 0.6358, stop loss: 0.6345, target: 0.6385, 0.6395

GBP/USD

During Wednesday's session, GBP/USD traded as low as around 1.3234, showing weakness. It then rebounded sharply to around 1.3280. Comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessant hinted at a easing of U.S.-China trade tensions, boosting market optimism and strengthening USD/GBP. Bessant said on Tuesday that he expects U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war with China to ease in the near future. He further pointed out that the two sides cannot maintain the tariff deadlock with China and the world's two largest economies must find a way to ease. Moreover, Trump on Tuesday appeared to put on hold his threat to fire Fed Chairman Powell, days after he intensified his criticism of the chairman for failing to cut interest rates. Optimism and the easing of the trade war provided some support to the dollar.

From a technical perspective, GBP/USD once again approached a three-year high above 1.3400 on Tuesday. The pair could witness more gains as all short- to long-term simple moving averages are sloping upwards. While the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the daily chart remains above the 65 level. This suggests strong bullish momentum and the uptrend remains intact. However, the failure of buyers to achieve a daily close above 1.34 could pave the way for a deeper correction, which could result in lower prices. The first support is at 1.3234 {Wednesday's low}, followed by 1.3202, the low of April 7. Conversely, a break above 1.3300 {round number} would support the year's high of 1.3424, with the key resistance at 1.3500 level.

Today, we recommend going long on GBP before 1.3260, stop loss: 1.3245, target: 1.3300, 1.3320

USD/JPY

USD/JPY traded around 143.00 on Wednesday, up more than 1.2% on the day, extending its rebound from mid-week lows. The dollar's gains were driven by improving risk appetite and signs that US-China trade tensions may ease. The dollar rebounded from a three-year low, helped by comments from US President Donald Trump reaffirming that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will remain in office and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant suggesting that tariff rates are unsustainable. However, fundamentals remain cautious. The S&P Global Composite PMI fell from 53.5 to 51.2 in April, confirming a slowdown in business momentum. The services PMI fell sharply to 51.4, while the manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 50.7. The Fed's Beige Book also reflected these concerns, pointing to slowing wage growth and persistent inflation due to tariff-driven input cost pressures. These reports reaffirmed investors’ doubts about the strength of the economy, especially as the Fed balances rising inflation with weakening activity.

From a technical perspective, USD/JPY showed some resilience below the 140.00 psychological level on Tuesday and the subsequent short-term covering rally warrants caution for bearish traders. However, the rebound momentum is struggling to find acceptance at the 143.00 level or the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-April decline. This in turn should become a key turning point, above which the spot price may target the Asian session high, around the 143.22 area, and climb further to the 144.00 level. The momentum may further extend to the 144.25-144.30 area or the 38.2% Fibonacci level. On the other hand, a break below the 141.45-141.50 area or the Asian session low, the spot price seems to find considerable support around the 141.00 level. However, if it effectively breaks below the latter, it will indicate that the recent downtrend is still far from over and puts USD/JPY at risk of retesting levels below 140.00, with some intermediate support around the 140.45 area.

Today, it is recommended to short the US dollar before 143.20, stop loss: 143.40; target: 142.10, 142.00

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair retreated slightly on Wednesday, slightly approaching the 1.1300 area. In early Asian trading on Wednesday, EUR/USD was under pressure from the recovery in demand for the US dollar. The dollar resumed its gains after news that US President Trump said he had no intention of firing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, although he was frustrated by the central bank's failure to cut interest rates faster. The pair fell to 1.1308 at one point, and then rebounded sharply to around 1.1390. The White House said on Tuesday that the Trump administration had made progress in negotiations on a trade agreement aimed at reducing the broad tariffs he announced earlier this month. U.S. Press Secretary Carolyn Levitt said 18 different countries have made trade offers to the U.S. and Trump's trade team met with 34 countries this week to discuss potential deals. Positive trade talks with trading partners boosted the dollar and posed a headwind for the major currency pair. In addition, hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials also helped boost the dollar's gains. Fed Board member Adrienne Kugler said late Tuesday that the U.S. central bank should keep short-term borrowing costs stable until inflation risks subside as U.S. import tariffs are significantly higher than expected, which could put upward pressure on prices.

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD has shown resilience in its recent rebound over the past month and a half and is above the very important 200-day simple moving average. In addition, the bullish Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator on technical indicators and the fact that the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) has retreated from the overbought zone are both in favor of bulls. Therefore, it would be wise to wait for a sustained breakout and acceptance below the 1.1300 round number, which was the highest level since November 2021 hit earlier this month, before confirming that EUR/USD has topped out in the 1.1575 area. This would pave the way for a further correction down to 1.1300, which in turn would point to the 1.1200 mark and the 1.1160-1.1155 area. On the other hand, the 1.1400 round number could now act as an immediate obstacle before the Asian session highs (around the 1.1425-1.1430 area). Some follow-up buying should be able to push the EUR/USD pair further above the 1.1500 psychological mark.

Today, it is recommended to go long on the euro before 1.1325, stop loss: 1.1310 target: 1.1390, 1.1400.

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