US Dollar Index

The US dollar fell against major currencies in an otherwise calm situation on Thursday. US President Donald Trump said that a deal with China is a possible outcome. The US dollar index erased Wednesday's gains and fell to a new low of 106.34 this year. Midweek, the US dollar index tracked the US dollar against six major currencies and rose slightly. US President Donald Trump expanded the scope of tariffs to pharmaceuticals and semiconductors by April. The US dollar index rebounded above 107.00. Investors weighed the Fed's policy stance and the latest trade measures announced by US President Donald Trump, who confirmed that pharmaceutical and semiconductor imports will face a 25% tariff from April. At this stage, the US dollar index is still above 106.00, but it is difficult to establish a clear direction. As the market remains cautious. US President Trump said that a new trade deal with China is possible, these remarks failed to boost people's sentiment on the safe-haven US dollar against major currencies. The US dollar index immediately fell to around 106.35.

From the daily chart, the US dollar index fell back to 106.34, the low of this year, and maintained a moderate decline, and the upward momentum is still limited. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of technical indicators continues to hover in the bearish zone, while the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) reflects continued downward pressure. Therefore, despite the rebound in the early part of this week, the 20-day simple moving average of 107.65 remains a key resistance level, which was lost last week. It also fell below the support of the 100-day simple moving average of 106.56. Breaking through this level may confirm the short-term bearish outlook to 106.00 (round mark). Then the 105.50 level. As for the bulls, stronger momentum is needed to challenge the resistance of the 20-day simple moving average of 107.65 and establish a more sustained rebound to the market psychological level of 108.00.

Today, consider shorting the US dollar index around 106.45, stop loss: 106.60, target: 106.10, 106.00

WTI spot crude oil

On Thursday, international oil prices rose, recording gains for the third consecutive day. The market was affected by the decline in US fuel inventories and the supply disruption in Russia, and oil prices remained high. Affected by concerns about supply disruptions in Russia and the United States, international oil prices remained at a one-week high, and the market is waiting for the latest progress of the United States in promoting the Ukraine peace agreement and further clarification of related sanctions policies. The market is weighing three major positive factors: Russia, Iran and OPEC+. Investors are analyzing the impact of announced and potential sanctions on global oil supply. On the other hand, Israel and Hamas are about to start indirect negotiations on the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement, which may reduce the risk of crude oil supply disruptions in the Middle East, thereby depressing oil prices. The new tariff policy announced by the Trump administration may curb global economic growth and thus reduce fuel demand. Weak global demand is also a factor limiting the rise in oil prices.

Oil prices have moved very little over the past three weeks, especially compared to a year ago. Further disorientation is reflected in the market's tendency to stay near familiar ranges, with front-month WTI crude oil trading above $70.00/bbl intraday since the start of the year. Similarly, speculative positioning has retreated to below $74.00/bbl since late January, and since the inauguration of the president, many traders have lost interest in trading fixed within the $70-74 range and have relatively shifted to basis spreads and time spreads. Therefore, short-term resistance is at $73.08 (50.0% Fibonacci retracement of 66.80 to 79.37), with the next level pointing to the 215-day moving average at 73.96). Support is focused on the $71.12 (89-day moving average) and $70 (market psychological level) areas.

Today, you can consider going long on crude oil around 72.25, stop loss: 72.10; target: 73.50; 73.70

Spot gold

On Thursday, gold prices hit a new high of $2,955, the tenth record this year. The tariff threat from US President Donald Trump has heightened market concerns about a global trade war, driving up safe-haven demand. Spot gold traded around 2,940, falling after hitting a record high on Wednesday as the dollar rose and US President Trump's latest tariff threat made investors nervous. The market is in an unusually high state of uncertainty; the catalyst is global tariffs and trade negotiations or threats," which provides support for gold prices. On the other hand, the Fed minutes showed that the potential impact of Trump's policies has caused the Fed to worry about rising inflation. More importantly, Trump asked "dictator" Zelensky to act quickly to ensure peace. The Kremlin said that Putin and Trump may meet before the end of February. Concerns about the geopolitical situation have cooled down, suppressing the safe-haven demand for gold.

Last week, gold prices did pull back due to higher-than-expected inflation data in the United States. However, this pullback was short-lived, and prices once again tested the historical high of around $2,955 per ounce for the tenth time in history. On the daily chart, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator has once again entered the overbought area. At this stage, The market is in a range with a high of around $2,955 and a low of around $2,877 (Friday's low). If it falls back from $2,955, it may retest the support levels of $2,924 and $2,913 before focusing on $2,900. On the upside, if the historical high of $2,955 is broken, the focus will shift to the resistance levels of $2,975 and $3,000.00 (market psychological level).

Consider going long on gold before 2,935.00 today, stop loss: 2,930.00; target: 2,955.00; 2.960.00

AUD/USD

AUD/USD eventually retested the 0.6400 area in response to the heavy selling pressure around the US dollar, while a solid Australian jobs report also provided additional support to the AUD. The Australian dollar continued to fall against the US dollar following the release of domestic employment data and China's interest rate decision on Thursday. However, AUD/USD faced headwinds as risk aversion increased due to concerns about US President Donald Trump's latest tariffs and the cautious tone in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)'s January policy meeting minutes. On Thursday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that Australia's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate From 4.0% in December to 4.1% in January, it was in line with market expectations. In addition, the employment change in January was 44k, lower than the revised 60k in December (previously 563k), but still exceeded the consensus forecast of 20k.

On Thursday, AUD/USD hit a new high of around 0.6405 this year, trading within an ascending channel, indicating bullish market sentiment. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the daily chart technical indicator also rose to a new high of 68 this year, reinforcing the positive outlook. On the upside, AUD/USD may challenge the key psychological resistance levels of 0.6476 (120-day moving average), and 0.6500. On the other hand, on the downside, the 85-day moving average of 0.6361 and 0.6300 (market psychological level) can be considered. It is followed by 0.6254 (February 13 low), and 0.6256 (50-day moving average).

Consider going long on AUD before 0.6390 today, Stop Loss: 0.6380; Target: 0.6450; 0.6460.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD has now accelerated its daily recovery, posting two consecutive daily pullbacks and rising to 1.2671 area, the highest in two months, against the increasing selling bias of the US dollar. GBP/USD remained stable after recording two consecutive days of losses, trading around 1.2590 in Asian session on Thursday. However, the pair came under pressure as US President Trump's concerns about tariffs provided support to the US dollar. The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's January policy meeting were released on Wednesday, reaffirming the decision to keep interest rates unchanged in January. Policymakers stressed that more time is needed to evaluate economic activity, labor market trends and inflation before considering any interest rate adjustments. The committee also agreed that clear signs of falling inflation are needed before implementing a rate cut. The British pound (GBP) failed to gain momentum despite the stronger-than-expected annual inflation rate released on Wednesday.

GBP/USD briefly fell below 1.2600 after the release of US economic data. The pair hit a three-day low of 1.2578 as risk appetite deteriorated and the dollar rose. Although the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the daily chart's technical indicators remains bullish, buyers have lost a step due to the lower RSI target. That is, if the pair falls below the high of 1.2549 on February 5, then 1.2500 (round mark), and 1.2455 (50-day simple moving average) will be tested. On the other hand, buyers who reclaim the peak of 1.2640 (Tuesday) (market psychological mark) may challenge 1.2700 (market psychological mark) since the beginning of the year, and 1.2730 (December 17 last year high).

Today, we recommend going long on GBP before 1.2658, stop loss: 1.2645, target: 1.2710, 1.2720

USD/JPY

USD/JPY remained high near its new year-to-date low of 149.40, below 150.00, in European trading on Thursday. The Bank of Japan's rate hike plans continue to push up JGB yields, further supporting the yen. Market concerns about the restarted US tariff negotiations kept the downtrend of the currency pair intact. The yen gained strong follow-through momentum on Thursday, dragging USD/JPY to its lowest level since December 6, around 149.40. Market expectations for further rate hikes from the Bank of Japan increased, pushing JGB yields to their highest level in more than a decade. The narrowing of interest rate differentials between Japan and other countries has become a key factor that continues to drive flows to the low-yielding yen. At the same time, new tariff threats from US President Trump have curbed investor demand for risky assets. This was evident in another drop in stocks and further supported demand for the safe-haven yen.

From a technical perspective, a sustained break below the 151.00 mark and confirmation could be considered a new trigger for bearish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are deeply trapped in negative territory and remain far from oversold zones. This in turn suggests that the resistance path for USD/JPY is downward, supporting the prospect of a slide towards the 150.00 psychological mark. The downward trajectory could extend further to the 149.00 mark and the December 2024 low, around the 148.65 area. On the other hand, the horizontal support of 150.90-151.00 now seems to be an immediate obstacle, and if it is breached, short-term covering could push USD/JPY to the 151.40 resistance level.

Today, it is recommended to short the US dollar before 149.80, stop loss: 150.00; target: 148.80, 148.65

EUR/USD

EUR/USD has regained its upward momentum, shaking off recent bearish sentiment and rising to just above 1.0500 amid a sharp sell-off in the US dollar ahead of key data releases on Friday. In the middle of the week, EUR/USD weakened to near 1.0430. US President Trump's tariff concerns and geopolitical tensions provided some support for the US dollar. The FOMC minutes released on Wednesday noted that it was appropriate to keep the target interest rate unchanged at the January meeting, adding that the Fed believes it is in a good position to take time to evaluate the outlook for economic activity, the labor market and inflation. Fed policymakers agreed that inflation must show clear signs of slowing before further rate cuts can be made. Any hawkish comments from Fed policymakers are likely to boost the US dollar in the short term. The latest round of tariff threats has boosted the US dollar and created a headwind for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD continued to retreat mid-week, falling below 1.0450 again. This marked the third consecutive day of losses for the pair, erasing more than 0.50% of last week's gains, when the pair surged more than 1.50%. Despite the ongoing correction, the broader technical outlook remains constructive as long as the pair remains above the 50-day simple moving average of 1.0386, and 1.0400 (market psychological barriers). Momentum indicators reflect the shift in market sentiment. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) rebounded sharply to 58.80, remaining in positive territory. As long as EUR/USD remains above the 50-day simple moving average, buyers are still likely to regain control. The next targets are 1.0545 (100-day SMA), and 1.0600 (round number). From a broader perspective, once the pair breaks below 10439 (75-day SMA) and 1.0400 (round number), it raises concerns about a potential bearish crossover. If this becomes a reality, it may confirm that the recent rebound is just a temporary correction, shifting the long-term outlook back to the downside towards the 1.0300 mark.

Today, it is recommended to go long on the euro before 1.0490, stop loss: 1.0475, target: 1.0550, 1.0560.

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