US Dollar Index

On Thursday, the US dollar index fluctuated narrowly above the 104.00 mark. The current market is re-pricing the potential impact of the US policy framework, and the breakthrough of the key technical resistance level further strengthened the short-term bullish momentum. The United States is trying to reshape the direction of trade flows through policy tools (such as tariff rhetoric), and the policy goals are directly aimed at the relative weakness of the US dollar and the return of manufacturing. Although this framework has not yet been fully implemented, its expectations have triggered a phased revaluation of capital on US dollar assets. Another fundamental support comes from the revision of the Fed's policy expectations. Although the consumer confidence index fell in March, the stickiness of the core PCE data and the resilience of the job market have reduced the market's expectation of a rate cut in June from 70% to 58%. If the US economy shows "shallow stagflation" characteristics (slowing growth but stubborn inflation), the US dollar may continue to have a premium on risky currencies.

From the latest daily chart, the US dollar index has effectively broken through 103.92 (10-day moving average) and 104.00 {integer mark}, suggesting a rebound in volatility. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator is around 43.10, indicating that the currency pair is not oversold, but lacks strong bullish confidence. The short-term support is at the 104.00 mark, as well as 103.85 (14-day simple moving average), and 103.84 {low at the beginning of this week}, and then 103.20 (low this year). On the other hand, it is worth noting that the 200-day simple moving average of 103.96 forms a resonance resistance with 104.90 (38.2% Fibonacci rebound level from 107.66 to 103.20). The effectiveness of the breakthrough here depends on whether the closing price can stand firm in this area for two consecutive cycles. Once the above resistance area is broken by the bulls, the medium-term trend turns optimistic and continues to challenge the 105.96 (61.8% Fibonacci rebound level) and 106.00 (round mark) levels.

Consider shorting the US dollar index near 104.40 today, stop loss: 104.55, target: 103.90, 103.80

WTI spot crude oil

On Thursday (March 27), international oil prices rose slightly as market participants were evaluating the impact of tightening global crude oil supply and the latest US tariffs on the global economy and energy demand. WTI crude oil was trading around $69.60 in early Asian trading on Thursday. WTI prices continued to rise, approaching a four-week high as the United States threatened to impose tariffs on countries that buy Venezuelan production, and market concerns about tight global supply intensified.

WTI prices have been supported since U.S. President Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on countries that buy Venezuelan oil or natural gas on April 2. The decline in crude oil inventories has contributed to the rise in crude oil prices. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report showed that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 3.341 million barrels in the week ending March 21, compared with an increase of 1.745 million barrels in the previous week. On the other hand, the maritime and energy ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine eased concerns about global supply tightness, which may limit the rise in WTI prices.

From the daily chart, WTI crude oil prices are still below its 50 and 200-day simple moving averages of $70.45 and $72.34, which currently constitute upper resistance. This may indicate that the recent upward momentum of oil prices has begun to weaken. Although the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator is in the positive zone (the latest report is around 55.00), the rebound in oil prices is still slightly insufficient, resulting in the recent upward momentum of short-term oil prices. The first support level is the 50-day simple moving average of $69.04, and the subsequent support level is $68.05 {25-day simple moving average}. The key is expected to be $65.05 (March 11 low). As for the new high, in addition to the $70.00 {market psychological barrier} level, the extended target is expected to be $70.48, the 100-day simple moving average, and then the 200-day simple moving average of $72.34.

Today, you can consider going long on crude oil near 69.55, stop loss: 69.40; target: 71.40; 71.50

Spot gold

On Thursday, the upward trend of gold prices continued, and gold hit a new record high of $3,059, up more than 1%. Due to the uncertainty caused by the trade policies implemented by US President Trump, the trade war has been further escalated, and automobile tariffs have been imposed. As uncertainty rises, precious metals traders bought gold, pushing its gains above $3,050. On Thursday, spot gold traded around 3,020.14. Gold prices fell on Wednesday as the US dollar and US bond yields climbed, but concerns about the Trump administration's new tariffs kept gold prices above $3,000 an ounce. Gold remains supported by risk aversion amid ongoing tariff uncertainty and geopolitical risks, and a new all-time high would help achieve my next upside target of $3,150. Gold, traditionally seen as a hedge against uncertainty and inflation, has risen more than 17% this year, and market participants are now looking forward to the release of US personal consumption expenditure data on Friday, which may provide more information on the path of US interest rate cuts.

Gold prices fluctuated in the middle of the week, as the market awaits a catalyst that could push prices to a new all-time high or break through the strong support of $3,000. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a technical indicator on the daily chart, is bullish, but has stabilized after two consecutive days of small declines, indicating that sellers are losing strength. That said, a breakout of this week's high of $3,036 against the US dollar could intensify a test of the all-time high of $3,057.50. An effective breakout of the latter again would pave the way for a test of $3,100. Conversely, if gold falls below $3,000, this would expose the February 24 high of $2,956, and $2,945.00 (50.0% Fibonacci retracement of 2,832.50 to 3,057.50) followed by the $2,900 mark.

Consider going long gold before 3,052 today, stop loss: 3,048; target: 3,075.00; 3.080.00

AUD/USD

AUD/USD is trading steadily around the 0.6300 area during Thursday’s US session. The pair is consolidating recent gains despite renewed weakness in the US dollar, facing selling pressure from tariff-related developments and market caution ahead of Friday’s PCE inflation release. The pair is trading in a narrow range, reflecting market uncertainty, but remains stable as optimism over China’s stimulus commitments provides support. The Australian dollar rebounded slightly against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, despite heightened risk aversion due to concerns about the upcoming U.S. auto tariffs. Overall, the Australian dollar is in a tug-of-war in the short term between 0.6267 (low at the beginning of this week) and 0.6349 (110-day simple moving average). Fundamentally, Australia's tax cuts and the expectation that the Reserve Bank of Australia will suspend further easing provide some support for the Australian dollar, but there is still uncertainty about the direction of interest rates and tariff policies in the United States, which puts pressure on risk currencies.

Technically, this week's high of 0.6330 resistance and the key early-week support of 0.6267 will become the focus of the long-short range struggle, and the direction of the breakthrough may determine the volatility of the market. If the upper resistance can be effectively broken, the Australian dollar is expected to continue its upward trend; on the contrary, if the lower support is lost again, it is necessary to be vigilant about further downside risks. The Australian dollar re-entered 0.6300 against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, approaching 0.6315, and technical indicators suggest that the currency pair may have a bullish turn as it attempts to break out of its descending channel pattern. If the market moves higher to 0.6325{100-day moving average}, and 0.6330{this week's high}, a break above this point could strengthen short-term price momentum and pave the way for a test of the monthly high of 0.6391 last seen on March 18. However, as the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator remains weaker than the 50 mid-line, it shows that bearish pressure remains. Strengthening the bearish outlook. This scenario could push the currency pair towards 0.6274{65-day moving average}, and a break below it would target 0.6200{round mark}.

Today, consider going long on AUD before 0.6290, stop loss: 0.6280; target: 0.6330; 0.6340.

GBP/USD

The British pound rose against the US dollar during the North American trading session despite the US President Donald Trump's imposition of auto tariffs on all cars manufactured outside the United States. Initially, risk appetite deteriorated, but then improved. As a result, high-beta currencies like the British pound rallied, with GBP/USD trading near 1.2950. GBP/USD recovered some of the losses from the previous session during Thursday's Asian session, climbing to around 1.2920. The dollar came under pressure as US Treasury yields fell. However, GBP/USD's upside could be limited as risk aversion rises amid escalating US trade policy. Late Wednesday, US President Donald Trump signed an order to impose a 25% tariff on car imports, scheduled to take effect on April 2, with collection starting the next day. The move has heightened global trade tensions and created uncertainty in the market.

GBP/USD recorded another decline in mid-week market trading, further dragging bids away from the last high near 1.3000 and giving back to 1.2870. Bearish pressure is starting to accumulate and price action could be ready to bounce downwards, with sellers eyeing a decisive breakout of the March 10 daily low of 1.2861, which, if breached, could pave the way for a test of the 200-day moving average near 1.2802. If it breaks, the next target will be 1.2767 (34-day moving average). Conversely, if GBP/USD rises above 1.2900, buyers may challenge this week's high of 1.2973, approaching the 1.30 psychological mark.

Today's recommendation is to go long GBP before 1.2935, stop loss: 1.2920, target: 1.2980, 1.2990

USD/JPY

USD/JPY hit a three-week high of 151.16 during the North American trading session on Thursday. The currency pair strengthened amid significant yen weakness. Although traders remain confident that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates again this year, the yen has performed poorly. In the Asian session on Thursday, the yen rose slightly against the US dollar, reversing most of the losses from the previous day. Global risk sentiment was hit by US President Donald Trump's new tariffs on imported cars. The news comes ahead of Trump's announcement of reciprocal tariffs on at least 15 countries next week, further supporting the safe-haven yen. In addition, hawkish sentiment around the Bank of Japan's policy outlook, coupled with strong wage growth for the third consecutive year, further supported the yen. Meanwhile, the Fed's forecast of two 25 basis point rate cuts by 2025 has formed a clear divergence with the Bank of Japan's hawkish expectations. This could lead to a further narrowing of the US-Japan interest rate differential, driving capital flows to the lower-yielding yen. In addition, the US dollar's slight retreat from a three-week high has brought USD/JPY close to the psychological level of 150.00.

From a technical perspective, the failure to effectively break and hold above the 50-day simple moving average of 151.43 and 151.00 (round numbers) on the daily chart this week is seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. The failure to close near the 151.00 mark in the middle of the week has made bulls cautious. Nevertheless, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator is around 56.00, reflecting that the neutral momentum has just begun to gain positive traction. Therefore, if USD/JPY turns around and falls below the psychological level of 150.00, it may find some support in the 149.55 area. However, if there is some follow-up selling, the spot price may accelerate its decline to the 149.00 level and approach the support level of 148.75-148.70. As for the upside, the first resistance area is around 151.43{50-day simple moving average}, and the monthly high of 151.30, and a break below it will further approach the round mark of 152.00.

Today, it is recommended to short the US dollar before 151,25, stop loss: 151.50; target: 150.30, 150.20

EUR/USD

EUR/USD continued its upward trend on Thursday, and the price approached the intraday high of 1.0800 area after the American trading session. Despite mixed momentum signals, price action reflects an overall bullish bias, with the pair steadily rising throughout the trading session, supported by underlying trend indicators. EUR/USD rebounded from more than three-week lows in the 1.0735-1.0730 area hit during the Asian session on Thursday and now appears to have ended a six-day downtrend. Momentum lifted spot prices to the 1.0780 area, or set a new intraday high in the last hour, helped by a pick-up in US dollar selling. Meanwhile, the European Union said it would retaliate by imposing tariffs on US imports. This raises the risk of a full-blown EU-US trade war and could deter traders from making aggressive bullish bets on the common currency. Moreover, anti-risk flows - as seen in the generally weak sentiment in the stock market - could support the safe-haven dollar and weigh on EUR/USD.

Six consecutive days of steady declines have taken their toll on EUR/USD, with buying slipping nearly 2% from last week's peak just above 1.0955. Bearish momentum has taken over, with price action poised to launch a fresh attack towards the 200-day exponential moving average (1.0726), and the 1.0700 mark. EUR/USD has weakened slightly after Thursday, hovering just below the 1.0800 area. The pair remains range-bound, reflecting limited directional confidence, but remains above key moving averages, maintaining the broader bullish trend. However, oscillators are sending some mixed signals. The relative strength index (RSI) is at 57, reflecting neutral momentum, while the average directional index (ADX) is at 29, indicating moderate trend strength. Although the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) remains above the signal line, it has turned down and sent a slight sell signal. Meanwhile, the combined RSI/stochastics confirm the neutral stance. From a horizontal perspective, the current overhead resistance is around the early week high around 1.0858, and later at the 1.0900 round number level.

Today it is recommended to go long on Euro before 1.0790, stop loss: 1.0775, target: 1.0850, 1.0860.

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