Australia has revised its forecast for commodity export income for the current financial year, citing a weaker Australian dollar and stronger-than-expected prices for key resources such as iron ore and liquefied natural gas (LNG). The Department of Industry, Science and Resources now projects total resource export earnings to reach A$387 billion ($243 billion) in the 12 months ending June 2025—an increase of 4% from its previous estimate but still nearly 7% lower than the prior year. However, the longer-term outlook remains bearish, with export revenues expected to decline to A$343 billion by 2030 due to weaker global demand and falling prices.

Despite steady export volumes, earnings from iron ore, coal, and LNG are projected to decline by approximately 40% over the next five years, the department stated in its quarterly report. Meanwhile, copper is expected to buck the trend, with both export volumes and revenue forecast to grow by 7% annually, supported by rising demand for the metal in renewable energy and electric vehicle production.

According to analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the global transition to cleaner energy sources is accelerating, contributing to a decline in thermal coal prices. Australia’s report anticipates that prices for thermal coal will drop to A$98 per ton by 2030, down from A$135 per ton last year, as countries expand domestic production and invest in renewables. The LNG market is also set to soften, with additional supply from the US and Qatar pushing prices down to $9 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) by the decade’s end, from $15 per MMBtu at the beginning of 2025.

Geopolitical tensions and trade disputes continue to add uncertainty to global commodity markets. While trade barriers and retaliatory measures may dampen economic growth, they could also spur volatility in commodity prices, particularly for gold, which remains a popular safe-haven asset. The report suggests that gold prices will likely stay elevated, ensuring stable export earnings for Australia’s gold sector.

Iron ore prices, on the other hand, are expected to face downward pressure as global supply expands. Market analysts from S&P Global point to rising output from Brazil’s Vale and new projects in Africa as key drivers of this trend. Overall, while short-term conditions appear resilient, Australia’s commodity exports face significant headwinds in the years ahead.

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