US Dollar Index

The US dollar index stabilized around 99.00 on Thursday, continuing to digest gains from earlier this week after the Federal Reserve did not adjust interest rates and reiterated a cautious, data-dependent stance. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said inflation could rise in the coming months, citing the impact of President Trump's tariffs. The central bank also lowered its growth forecast and maintained guidance for two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2025, surprising the market, which expected only one rate cut. In addition, the dollar was supported by safe-haven funds due to escalating geopolitical tensions. Investors are concerned about the possibility of the United States being involved in the Israel-Iran conflict, and there are reports that Washington is preparing for a possible strike on Iran. Meanwhile, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that if the United States intervenes militarily, it will cause "irreparable damage" to the United States.

The dollar index once again hovered above 99.00, just below the 30-day simple moving average of 99.49. Currently, the US dollar index is trading around 98.80, with an intraday high of 99.16, and the 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a technical indicator of the daily chart, shows signs of recovering from a sell-off. Traders remain cautious when making aggressive bets. Although the US dollar index remains under broad pressure from continued concerns about new tariffs, it has regained some safe-haven appeal against the backdrop of an escalating conflict between Iran and Israel. On the upside, pay attention to the 30-day simple moving average of 99.49 and the 50-day simple moving average of 99.80. As for the downside, keep an eye on 98.62 {9-day simple moving average} and 98.04 {Tuesday's low}.

Consider shorting the US dollar index near 98.95 today, stop loss: 99.10, target: 98.40, 98.30

WTI spot crude oil

After jumping to $73.00 on Friday, WTI crude oil traded near $75.00 in Asia on Thursday, hitting a recent high. WTI prices rose on concerns that the Israel-Iran crisis could escalate into a larger conflict involving the United States. Direct U.S. involvement would expand the conflict and put the region's energy infrastructure at a higher risk of attack. This in turn could push up WTI prices in the short term. U.S. crude oil inventories fell sharply last week. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report showed that U.S. crude oil inventories fell sharply by 11.473 million barrels in the week ending June 13, compared with a decrease of 364,400 barrels in the previous week. The market consensus expects inventories to fall by 230,000 barrels. Nevertheless, expectations of falling demand may limit WTI's upside.

In the coming days, whether it is further escalation of military actions or breakthroughs in diplomatic negotiations, it will have a profound impact on the trend of oil prices. The global market is holding its breath and waiting to see the next development of this Middle East game. As oil prices are extremely sensitive to the development of the situation in the Middle East, the trend of oil prices this week is also obviously more volatile. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator of the daily chart is around 74.80, indicating that the momentum is increasing. Once it rises above the immediate resistance of $74.74, the high of last week, the stronger resistance level ahead is $76.27 {January 22 high}, and the round mark level of $80.00. On the downside, pay attention to $71.26 {5-day simple moving average}, and the psychological mark of $70.00.

Consider going long on WTI crude oil near 72.90 today, stop loss: 72.70, target: 74.30, 74.60

Spot gold

Gold prices reversed the pullback in the early European session, hitting a one-week low, and are now trading in the 3,375-3,370 area, with little change on the day due to mixed fundamental signals. The Fed's hawkish pause on Wednesday helped the US dollar continue to strengthen in its recent rebound from a three-year low and caused the non-yielding yellow metal to decline on the day. However, a combination of factors helped limit the downside for gold. Global risk sentiment is fragile due to ongoing trade-related uncertainties and the risk of further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which is seen as supportive for safe-haven gold prices. This in turn requires bearish traders to remain cautious and consider the extension of the pullback after hitting a near two-month high on Monday in the absence of relevant market-driven US economic data.

The daily chart of gold shows that the price has recently successfully stood above 3.314.00 {50-day simple moving average}, and the technical side shows a stabilization and recovery pattern. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator of the daily chart is above 50, the MACD indicator forms a golden cross, and the momentum column is enlarged, suggesting that buying is dominant. Gold is emerging from technical consolidation. If inflation expectations rise and the interest rate path turns to realization, gold prices are expected to challenge the highs of the year. The current resistance level is around $3,400. If it breaks through this level, it will confirm that the upward trend continues to the $3,450 and $3,452 {early week high} area, and the support level below is $3,323 {14-day simple moving average}. If it fails, it will face the risk of short-term adjustment to the $3.314.00 {50-day simple moving average} and $3,300 {market psychological barrier} area.

Consider going long on gold near 3,365 today, stop loss: 3,360, target: 3,390, 3,395

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar fell to around $0.6445 on Thursday, reversing a strong rally from the previous session following the release of labor market indicators that reinforced the case for monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia. While the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%, the third consecutive month, in line with market forecasts, the employment data was disappointing. Total employment fell by 2,500 to 14.62 million, contrary to market expectations of an increase of 25,000, and also marked the first monthly decline since February. The market is now pricing in an 80% probability that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut its key interest rate from 3.85% to 3.6% at its July 8 meeting, with two more rate cuts expected later this year. On the external front, the Australian dollar was also pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar, due to the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve.

AUD/USD was trading around 0.6470 on Thursday, and technical analysis on the daily chart shows that the pair is still in an uptrend, maintaining a bullish bias. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) among the technical indicators is slightly above 50, indicating a sustained bullish bias. However, the pair is still below the 14-day simple moving average of 0.6498, and 0.6500 {market psychological level}, indicating that short-term price momentum is weakening. Immediate resistance appears in the 0.6498-0.6500 area, followed by the seven-month high of 0.6552 set on June 16. A break above this level may support the pair to target the 0.6600 round number mark}. On the downside, AUD/USD is testing the 50-day simple moving average of around 0.6436. A break below this channel will weaken the bullish bias and prompt the pair to test the 0.6400 round number mark level.

Consider going long on AUD around 0.6460 today, stop loss: 0.6450, target: 0.6520 , 0.6530

GBP/USD

The British pound is hovering around $1.3450 after the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged, against a mixed backdrop of persistent inflation, heightened geopolitical tensions, and potential trade disruptions from proposed U.S. tariffs. However, the decision was not unanimous: six of the nine MPC members voted for no change, while three backed a 25 basis point cut, defying market expectations for a 7-2 split. The Bank of England warned of a "dual risk to inflation," noting that price growth could remain broadly stable for the rest of the year before falling back towards its target in 2026. Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened, supported by safe-haven inflows, weighed down by the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict and the Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also mentioned possible inflationary pressures, in part due to new tariffs proposed by the Trump administration.

GBP/USD's uptrend is at risk as the pair briefly broke below 1.3400 and tested the 50-day moving average at 1.3388. Although buyers lifted the exchange rate back above 1.3400, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart shows that traders have slightly turned bearish. Therefore, unless the RSI climbs above the neutral line of 50, the downside risk remains. On the upside, key resistance levels are 1.3500 (market psychological level) and 1.3501{25-day simple moving average} area, followed by 14-day simple moving average of 1.3525, and the early week high of 1.3623. On the downside, GBP/USD's first support is 1.3400, the intraday low of 1.3382, and the 1.3300 round number.

Consider going long on GBP around 1.3450 today, stop loss: 1.3440, target: 1.3495, 1.3510

USD/JPY

The yen underperformed against an overall stronger dollar on Thursday, with USD/JPY eyeing a retest of the monthly swing highs earlier this week. The Bank of Japan's cautious approach to unwinding its decade-long monetary stimulus has forced investors to push back expectations on the likely timing of the next rate hike to the first quarter of 2026. In addition, the potential economic impact of the existing 25% US tariff on Japanese cars and 24% reciprocal tariffs are also key factors weakening the yen. On the other hand, the dollar climbed to its highest level in more than a week, supported by the Fed's hawkish pause on Wednesday. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding US President Trump's trade policy and growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to weigh on investor sentiment. This could help limit deeper losses for the yen as a safe-haven currency and cap gains for USD/JPY.

From a technical perspective, any further decline is likely to find considerable support and could be viewed as a buying opportunity around the 144.50-144.45 area, below which USD/JPY could slide to the 144.00 mark. A break below the latter would expose the next relevant support at the 143.55-143.50 area, after which the spot price could eventually fall to the 143.00 round number mark and then Friday’s swing low, around the 142.80-142.75 area. On the other hand, the 145.45 area, representing the upper limit of the short-term trading range and the monthly swing high, could continue to act as an immediate barrier. A sustained strong breakout would be viewed as a new trigger for bullish traders. Given that the oscillators on the daily chart have just started to gain positive momentum, the spot price could aim to conquer the 146.00 round number mark before climbing further to the 146.25-146.30 area, or the highs of May 29.

Consider shorting the dollar near 145.75 today, stop loss: 145.96, target: 144.60, 144.40

EUR/USD

EUR/USD extended its retreat from last week’s highs on Thursday, affected by investor risk aversion as concerns about the Israel-Iran war escalating into a regional conflict overshadowed the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision. The common currency fell below the 1.1500 level and is currently trading around 1.1490. US officials may be preparing to enter a war over the weekend. The dollar was supported by investors’ risk-averse reaction amid growing concerns that the conflict could escalate into a regional war and add new uncertainty to the already strained global economic growth outlook. The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50% at its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, however, Chairman Jerome Powell dampened investor enthusiasm and the dollar retreated after the decision, but regained lost ground after Powell’s hawkish comments.

EUR/USD broke out of the triangle pattern mid-week, confirming a deeper reversal from last week's high of 1.1632. The pair rebounded slightly mid-week, but is still below 1.1500. While the 4-hour relative strength index (RSI) is still below 50, indicating that bearish momentum may be strengthening. The pair has fallen back below 1.1500 and may retest 1.1430{20-day simple moving average}, or lower to pave the way to 1.1400 mark will be the next target. Further declines to 1.1370 (June 6 and 10 lows) and 1.1315 (May 30 low) may follow. Immediate resistance is at the 1.1500 round number mark. The next target is 1.1535 (Wednesday's high), and 1.1632{last week's high} level.

Today, you can consider going long on Euro around 1.1480, stop loss: 1.1470, target: 1.1530, 1.1540

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