From the daily chart, AUD/USD traded near 0.6555 on Monday. Analysis indicates that AUD/USD has returned to a descending channel, suggesting that bearish sentiment may be waning. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slightly above the 30 level, indicating that AUD/USD may soon enter a consolidation phase. The pair might find immediate support at the July low of 0.6513 (July 25) and the psychological barrier of 0.6500. A break below these levels could lead to the May low of 0.6465 and the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.6464 (from 0.6362 to 0.6798), followed by the psychological level of 0.6400. On the upside, key resistance levels are at 0.6580 (50.0% Fibonacci retracement level from 0.6362 to 0.6798) and 0.6587 (200-day moving average). A break above these levels could see the pair testing the psychological level of 0.6600 and the 100-day moving average at 0.6605, followed by 0.6631 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level).

Today, consider going long on AUD before 0.6530, with a stop loss at 0.6510, and targets at 0.6580 and 0.6590.

EUR

The week started poorly for EUR/USD as it retreated to just above the 1.0800 area, breaking below the critical 200-day moving average at 1.0820, exposing further short-term weakness. During the early Asian trading session on Monday, EUR/USD briefly rose to around 1.0860. Traders widely anticipate that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September, which would drag the dollar lower. The recent June inflation rate in the US, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, slightly eased compared to the previous year, paving the way for a Fed rate cut in September. The market expects three rate cuts starting from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in September this year. Conversely, traders expect further rate cuts from the European Central Bank (ECB) soon, which could pressure EUR/USD. Traders will seek more clues from the preliminary Q2 GDP data for Germany and the Eurozone. If the readings exceed expectations, it could boost the EUR/USD exchange rate.

Despite finding a slight footing and rising slightly at the end of last week, EUR/USD struggles to gain momentum. Currently, EUR/USD is positioned slightly above the support trendline stretching upward from the June low of 1.0606 at around 1.0848. The overall trend could favor buyers as the price action remains above the 200-day moving average at 1.0817. Therefore, the first upward target is 1.0881 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level from 1.0666 to 1.0948) and 1.0900 (psychological level). The next level to watch is 1.0933 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level). However, as EUR/USD falls back from the recent peak of 1.0948, upward opportunities are diminishing. The last significant drop saw the price around 1.0700. With continued bearish pressure attempting to pull EUR/USD back to lower levels, the downside sees strong support from the 100-day and 200-day moving averages at 1.0797 - 1.0817, ahead of 1.0773 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level) and even the July 3 low of 1.0736.

Today, consider going long on USD before 1.0805, with a stop loss at 1.0790, and targets at 1.0860 and 1.0870.

GBP

GBP/USD struggles to gain traction, consolidating around 1.2860. Investors have adopted a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Reserve and Bank of England policy meetings this week, causing the currency pair to trade in a narrow range. During the Asian trading session on Monday, GBP/USD strengthened to around 1.2888. The weak dollar, driven by expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, has supported GBP/USD. The monetary policy meetings of the Fed and the Bank of England on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, will be closely watched. Most analysts and traders expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at Wednesday's meeting. The Fed might signal a rate cut this week, even though the market widely expects the Fed to stay steady until the next rate decision in September. If the Fed maintains a dovish tone, it could weigh on the dollar and boost GBP/USD. On the pound side, the Bank of England might cut rates at its August meeting on Thursday, marking the first rate cut since 2020.

GBP/USD fell to a low of 1.2845 after retreating from the 12-month high of 1.3045 reached the previous week. The pair has dropped about 1.5% from peak to trough, but recent momentum still favors buyers as the price action holds above the psychological level of 1.2800 and the 30-day moving average at 1.2798. The next levels to watch are 1.2777 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from 1.2612 to 1.3045) and 1.2750. Conversely, if buyers push the pair above 1.2900, further gains could be seen. The targets would be 1.2942 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level), followed by the psychological level of 1.3000 and the July 17 high of 1.3045.

Today, consider going long on GBP before 1.2850, with a stop loss at 1.2830, and targets at 1.2900 and 1.2910.

JPY

USD/JPY is trading in a narrow range above 154.00, with focus on the upcoming Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Federal Reserve (Fed) policy meetings. The BoJ is expected to raise rates by 10 basis points and announce a bond reduction plan, while investors believe the Fed will maintain the status quo. During the Asian session on Monday, USD/JPY attracted new buyers and briefly jumped to the 154.35 area due to some repositioning trades ahead of this week's key central bank event risks. Subsequently, the pair pulled back significantly to 153.00, as the increased likelihood of a BoJ rate hike this week offset concerns about the Middle East and the general weakness of the dollar. All eyes are on the BoJ and Fed policy announcements later this week. Both central banks will announce their policy decisions at the conclusion of their two-day meetings on Wednesday. With diverging policy expectations between the BoJ and the Fed, USD/JPY seems unable to achieve further gains. The BoJ is expected to reduce bond purchases and potentially raise rates, while the market has fully priced in the Fed starting a policy easing cycle in September, with a total of three rate cuts by the end of this year.

On Monday, USD/JPY is trading above 153.00. Daily chart analysis shows that USD/JPY is testing the midline of the descending channel at 152.80 and the 150-day moving average at 129.95, indicating that bearish sentiment may be increasing. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below 30 (latest at 77.70), indicating severe oversold conditions and suggesting a potential short-term rebound. A break below 152.95 - 152.80 could apply downward pressure and push USD/JPY to retest the May 3 low of 151.95, forming a "double bottom" (also seen last Thursday at 151.95), indicating a stronger dovish bias. Additional support could be found at the psychological level of 151.00. On the upside, USD/JPY may test the "back-support-turned-resistance" around 154.50. Further resistance might appear at 154.90 (upper boundary of the descending channel) and subsequently at 155.72 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from 151.95 to 161.95).

Today, consider shorting USD before 154.20, with a stop loss at 154.50, and targets at 153.40 and 153.20.

XAU

As the market reacts to escalating Middle East tensions, gold started the week on a positive note. However, after rising above $2,400, gold prices fell back below this level, pressured by a stronger dollar ahead of key events this week. During the early Asian session on Monday, gold prices briefly climbed to $2,403. Following the cooling of US inflation data, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates in September, which has supported gold. Investors will closely watch the Fed's rate decision on Wednesday, where the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged. Recent evidence of progress in inflation has fueled expectations that the Fed will begin easing monetary policy in September, boosting precious metal prices as lower rates typically reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. On the other hand, China, the world's largest gold producer and consumer, has seen economic sluggishness and reduced purchasing interest from the Chinese central bank, potentially capping gold's upside. Additionally, gold may continue to face pressure from excessive long positions and declining demand in Asia.

Gold prices still have an upward trend, ending a two-day decline and forming a "bullish harami" double candlestick pattern, indicating the end of a bearish phase and the start of a bullish phase. Momentum suggests buyers are still in control, and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaking above the neutral 50 line (currently at 53) opens the door for further gains. Gold buyers must reclaim the psychological $2,400 level to push prices towards resistance at $2,437.20 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level from $2,286.80 to $2,483.70) and $2,445.50 (July 19 high). Breaking the latter would target the all-time high around $2,483.70, followed by the $2,500 milestone. On the downside, initial support can be seen at $2,385.20 (50.0% Fibonacci retracement level), followed by $2,362.00 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level), $2,360.40 (50-day simple moving average), and $2,360.50 (lower boundary of the ascending channel).

Today, consider going long on gold before $2,380.00, with a stop loss at $2,376.00, and targets at $2,396.00 and $2,399.00.

XTI

Following Hezbollah rocket attacks on the Golan Heights, supported by Iran, oil prices have rebounded to nearly $77 due to new supply concerns. The July Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and the Federal Reserve policy meeting will guide the next steps for oil prices. The Fed is expected to provide moderate guidance on interest rates. WTI oil prices opened strong on Monday, reversing some of Friday's heavy losses and climbing back to around $78.00. However, WTI struggled to maintain its upward momentum beyond the $78.00 per barrel mark, urging investors to exercise caution before positioning for further gains. A slightly weaker dollar also provided additional support for crude prices. Concerns about fuel demand due to China's weak economic growth, being the world's largest oil importer, could limit commodity price gains. Traders are likely waiting for the outcome of the Fed's two-day monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, which could provide clearer direction for oil prices.

From the daily chart, technical indicators such as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic Oscillator have just risen from oversold territory, suggesting a potential short-term stabilization in oil prices. Support is anticipated at the $75.65 level (lower boundary of the descending channel) and the $75.51 level (76.4% Fibonacci retracement). Further support can be seen at the June low of $72.67. On the upside, resistance is noted at the 200-day moving average of $78.64. Breaking this level would target the psychological barrier of $80.00 and $80.12 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement from $72.67 to $84.73), with the next reference being the 100-day moving average at $80.80.

Today, consider going long on crude oil around $76.35, with a stop loss at $76.15, and targets at $77.50 and $77.70.

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