US Dollar Index

On Thursday, the US Dollar Index fell to 102, retreating from an 18-month high as a decline in US Treasury yields weighed on the greenback, and Federal Reserve officials tempered market expectations for an imminent interest rate hike. Recent economic data has failed to alleviate inflation concerns; US producer prices rose at their fastest pace in over four years, reinforcing market bets on a tightening of monetary policy. However, comments from Fed Governor Michelle Bowman—who oversees regulatory matters—and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggest that policymakers may await further evidence before deciding on interest rates at the upcoming meeting on October 27–28. Meanwhile, growing investor concern regarding the debt exposure of artificial intelligence (AI) firms has fueled a flight to safety, bolstering demand for US Treasuries. Market participants are now looking to upcoming remarks from Federal Reserve official Kevin Warsh for clues regarding the monetary policy outlook, as the Fed’s "blackout period" (a quiet period for communications) begins this Saturday.

From a technical perspective, the pullback in the US Dollar Index over the past week can be viewed as a technical correction within a strong, long-term uptrend; the overall medium-term bullish structure remains intact. The index continues to trade steadily above both the 20-day and 100-day simple moving averages, confirming that the medium-term bullish framework is still in place. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at approximately 64.47—firmly in positive territory without reaching overbought levels—indicating that buying pressure remains dominant and there is still room for further gains before the trend becomes overextended. The MACD indicator shows a waning of upward momentum, though it has not yet turned negative. Regarding resistance, the 102.61 level (last week’s high) serves as the immediate ceiling; repeated attempts to break through this level have been unsuccessful, leading to an accumulation of profit-taking sell orders. Should buying pressure intensify and the index successfully clear this area, it could potentially challenge the 103.00 psychological level. Regarding support, the 14-day moving average at 101.90 serves as the first line of defense—a level that previously acted as resistance before turning into support following a breakout. Further down, the 20-day moving average, located near 100.52, acts as a key threshold for medium-term trend strength.

For today, one might consider shorting the US Dollar Index at 102.10, with a stop-loss at 102.20 and targets at 101.70 and 101.60.

AUD/USD

During Thursday’s Asian session, the AUD/USD pair attracted selling pressure following disappointing Australian employment data, falling to a one-week low below the 0.6950 level. However, the overall weakness in the US dollar helped limit the downside for the spot price, suggesting caution before betting on a continuation of the decline from Wednesday’s monthly high—a peak reached above the psychological 0.7000 mark. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported a decline of 39,300 jobs in September, reversing the previous month’s gain of 39,500 and falling significantly short of the expected 20,000 increase. Furthermore, the unemployment rate ticked up from 4.6% in August to 4.7%, dampening expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). While this placed heavy pressure on the Australian dollar, the US dollar’s ​​sustained pullback from its April 2025 highs provided a tailwind for the AUD/USD pair. Additionally, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released on Wednesday—which indicated broadening inflationary pressures—contributed to a further decline in US Treasury yields, offering some support to the AUD/USD pair.

In the short term, the bias for AUD/USD remains slightly bearish, with the pair continuing to trade below the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at 0.6986 on the 4-hour chart. The spot price is currently trading below the previously supportive upward-sloping trendline—near 0.6960—indicating that what was once support has now turned into resistance. With upside potential constrained at this level, any rebound may struggle to gain traction. The 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at 0.6986 is likely to serve as an initial resistance, further reinforcing the broader pressure facing any recovery attempt before reaching the overnight swing high near 0.7015. On the downside, the next support level to watch is the structural swing low near 0.6905; should the AUD/USD pair retreat further toward the 0.6903 level (the October 1st low) and the 0.6900 psychological mark, buyers are expected to re-enter the market.

Consider going long on the AUD at 0.6910 today; stop-loss: 0.6900; targets: 0.6960, 0.6970.

GBP/USD

On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair climbed toward 1.3275. Despite U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data coming in higher than expected, the U.S. dollar weakened against the British pound. Traders are currently awaiting the UK’s monthly GDP figures, followed by U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales data later on Thursday. The market currently assigns a 75.1% probability to the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged at its October 27–28 meeting—up from 53% a month ago—while pricing in a cumulative tightening of approximately 79 basis points by the end of 2027. Meanwhile, in the UK, Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill expressed skepticism on Wednesday regarding market expectations that the Bank of England would raise borrowing costs four times over the coming year. The market has almost fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at its next meeting in November, with expectations for three additional hikes to follow by September 2027.

On the daily chart, the GBP/USD pair maintains a bearish tone in the short term, as the spot price remains below the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of 1.3332. The price is holding above the lower Bollinger Band at 1.3146, suggesting that while downward pressure has eased, it has not yet been exhausted. Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at approximately 44.79—below the neutral 50 level—indicating persistent weak momentum rather than an oversold condition. To the upside, initial resistance is found near the 1.3300 psychological level, followed by the 30-day SMA at 1.3332; further up, the 100-day SMA at 1.3392 reinforces a broader supply zone. On the downside, the 1.3200 level serves as the first key support; a decisive break below this point could pave the way for further weakness toward the lower Bollinger Band at 1.3146.

For today, consider going long on GBP at 1.3265, with a stop-loss at 1.3255 and targets at 1.3300 and 1.3310.

USD/JPY

Following a slight pullback on Monday, the USD/JPY pair is trading just below the 158.00 level mid-week—within striking distance of the monthly high reached last week. Nevertheless, the pair remains confined to the familiar 157.60–158.75 range established over the past two weeks, with neither bulls nor bears demonstrating the decisive strength required to break the current equilibrium. Market sentiment remains relatively cautious as traders await tonight’s high-impact CPI data and a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Powell on Friday, looking for clues that might trigger the next directional breakout. Pressure on the Japanese yen stems primarily from a marginal cooling in expectations regarding Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy. BOJ officials appear inclined to avoid back-to-back interest rate hikes this month; policymakers see no immediate need for consecutive moves unless upside risks to inflation intensify significantly and abruptly. The central bank will continue to evaluate economic data to determine whether further action is warranted at its December meeting. Meanwhile, the US dollar remains well-supported. The interest rate differential between the US and Japan persists at a wide margin—exceeding 150 basis points—with the logic of the "carry trade" continuing to provide structural support for the USD/JPY pair.

From a technical perspective, USD/JPY maintains a short-term bullish structure on the 4-hour chart. The pair is trading steadily above the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) at approximately 157.07, which continues to serve as dynamic support, indicating that the prevailing uptrend has not yet been definitively broken. Short-term moving averages remain fanned out to the upside; however, while the MACD indicator stays above the zero line, the red histogram bars are narrowing, and the MACD lines are converging—signaling that bullish momentum is waning, though it has not yet turned negative. The 14-period RSI, hovering near 40, sits in a neutral-to-bullish zone without reaching overbought territory; this suggests that while buyers remain in control, upward momentum is losing steam. Regarding resistance, the area near 158.75 forms the upper boundary of the short-term trading range—a level where the price faced repeated selling pressure last week, indicating a concentration of sell orders. Only a breakout accompanied by significant volume, followed by stabilization above this level, would confirm that the bulls have regained the initiative, potentially opening the path toward the dense resistance zone between 159.00 and 159.55. On the downside, the low of 157.51 (recorded on October 8) serves as the first level of support, followed by the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) near 157.07, and the 157.00 psychological round-number mark.

For today, one might consider shorting the USD at 158.10, with a stop-loss at 158.25 and targets at 157.50 and 157.40.

EUR/USD

During Thursday’s Asian trading session, EUR/USD was gathering momentum near 1.1220. However, the upside potential for this major currency pair may be limited, given ongoing market concerns regarding France’s fiscal situation. Investors are now looking ahead to the release of the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales data for September, due later on Thursday. French government bonds have been among the assets hit hardest in the recent global sell-off; traders fear that political maneuvering ahead of next year’s presidential election could hinder efforts to reduce the country’s substantial deficit. European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde has suggested that France should pursue fiscal consolidation. Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday—a key inflation figure that has reinforced the case for a potential interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve at its October policy meeting. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, futures traders have raised the probability of a rate hike at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting—scheduled for October 27–28—to approximately 31.6%. On the daily chart, EUR/USD maintains a short-term bearish tone, remaining below the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1296 and the monthly low of 1.1336. The pair is attempting to stabilize following its recent decline; the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered from oversold territory to 37.72, though buying interest remains tepid as the price continues to face heavy overhead resistance. To the upside, initial resistance lies at the 20-day SMA (1.1296), followed by the monthly low (1.1336)—levels that collectively form a broad supply zone, likely capping any corrective rebound. On the downside, the low from Thursday at 1.1151 serves as the next key support level; a break below this point could extend the pair’s current bearish trend toward the 1.1100 level.

Consider going long on EUR/USD at 1.1210 today; stop-loss: 1.1200; targets: 1.1250, 1.1260.

WTI Crude Oil

On Thursday, crude oil prices climbed toward $96 per barrel amid escalating supply risks in the Middle East. Attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz—including the sinking of a Singapore-flagged container ship—have driven tanker freight rates in the Persian Gulf to record highs. Reports suggest the U.S. military has drafted plans for a potential new strike against Iran, which could involve the "Mother of All Bombs" (MOAB)—the most powerful non-nuclear explosive in the U.S. arsenal. Meanwhile, Iran has stated it is "biding its time" before striking U.S. warships. Additionally, U.S. inventories fell by 8 million barrels for the week ending October 9, providing further support to oil prices. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that tight supply in the diesel market could persist into next year, while threats of attacks against Saudi Arabia continue to jeopardize the recovery of oil supplies. Meanwhile, it is reported that the U.S. is considering easing sanctions on the "shadow fleet" of vessels used to transport Russian oil and petroleum products, in an effort to alleviate global supply pressures.

As long as geopolitical tensions remain unresolved, end-user oil prices are likely to stay elevated—even if there are no disruptions to crude supply—due to high transportation and insurance costs. At the same time, high oil prices increase the bargaining power of actors like Iran and the Houthis, which could paradoxically create openings for peace talks or a de-escalation of conflict. From a technical perspective, WTI crude prices finally saw a breakout mid-week. The key now is whether the price can hold above the $91.32 level (the 20-day moving average) and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. However, given the recent sustained rally, the likelihood of U.S. intervention is increasing. If the price manages to hold above the 20-day moving average ($91.32) and the psychological $90.00 mark, it could continue to climb toward the $98.00–$100.00 range. Conversely, should it fall below the 20-day moving average ($91.32) and the $90.00 psychological level, the next support level lies at $89.15 (the 50-day moving average).

For today, one might consider going long on crude oil at $95.90, with a stop-loss at $95.74 and targets at $98.00 and $99.00.

Spot Gold

On Thursday, gold rose to approximately $4,170 per ounce, recovering losses from the previous trading session. Crude oil saw its five-day rally come to an end, easing pressure on other markets. A weaker U.S. dollar and a pullback in bond yields also provided support for metal prices. Nevertheless, market sentiment remains under pressure as U.S. inflation data came in higher than expected, fueling expectations that the Federal Reserve will pursue more aggressive interest rate hikes. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.7% in September—its highest level in four months and above the market expectation of 3.6%—driven primarily by an increase in energy costs. Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, described the data as "disappointing" and warned that the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure could potentially lead to an overheating economy. Meanwhile, Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, stated that the central bank might need to raise short-term interest rates further, though she noted that an immediate rate hike at this month’s meeting is not necessary.

On Thursday, spot gold was trading near $4,170 per ounce, having earlier rebounded to a high of $4,177. Gold prices fell for the third consecutive session on Wednesday, as the higher-than-expected inflation data fueled market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike this month. Market momentum remains weak; the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering just above 40, and the MACD indicator is slightly in negative territory. This suggests that, despite gold’s recent range-bound pattern, the bears maintain a slight advantage. Initial resistance lies at the psychological level of $4,200, followed by the 100-day moving average at $4,245.60. A stronger, sustained rebound would face further resistance at the $4,300 level. On the downside, a decisive break below $4,100 (Wednesday’s low) could open the door for a decline toward $4,066 (the local low from October 7) or even the $4,000 round-number support level.

For today, one might consider going long on gold at $4,165, with a stop-loss at $4,160 and targets at $4,200 and $4,210.