Equity Analysis
Australia ASX 200 Index
Market Overview
The Australian ASX 200 fell 29 points, or 0.3%, on Tuesday to close at 8,787, extending its decline for a fourth consecutive session. Early gains were reversed as U.S. equity-index futures dropped sharply amid a sell-off in Wall Street technology shares and rising bond yields.

The benchmark index slipped to its lowest level in more than a week as investors turned cautious ahead of Australia’s domestic CPI release on Wednesday and labour-market data later in the week. Both data points are seen as important inputs for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next policy move after the central bank kept the cash rate unchanged last week.

Weakness was broad-based, led by electronic technology, manufacturing, logistics and consumer-related sectors. Viva Energy fell 3% after confirming that its Geelong refinery would restart this week, while also stating that its alkylation unit will remain offline until 2027, limiting gasoline output. Mining names also weighed on the index: Northern Star Resources dropped 2.8%, Evolution Mining fell 2.2%, and Fortescue lost 1.5%. By contrast, the four major banks rose between 0.4% and 0.9%, helping to cushion the broader decline.

Hong Kong Hang Seng Index
Market Overview
The Hang Seng Index fell 0.3% on Tuesday to 23,766, extending the previous session’s decline as concerns over global interest rates outweighed support from easing geopolitical tensions. Sentiment was helped by signs of progress in U.S.-Iran peace talks, which kept oil prices near recent lows and supported risk appetite across parts of Asia. However, investors remained cautious after the Federal Reserve signalled that borrowing costs could stay elevated for longer due to persistent inflation pressure.

Regional sentiment was mixed. Despite the sharp drop in oil prices, most of Wall Street ended lower and equities struggled for direction. Investors also monitored developments in Hong Kong’s IPO market and upcoming lock-up expiries, both of which could increase volatility in the coming weeks. Among notable decliners, Tencent fell 1.7%, Knowledge Graph dropped 5.0%, and Xiaomi lost 2.7%. Meanwhile, SMIC rose 3.2%, Dongyue Group gained 3.2%, and Lenovo added 0.3%.

Currency Analysis
U.S. Dollar Index
The U.S. Dollar Index traded around 101.30 on Tuesday, hovering near its highest level since May 2025 as investors assessed signs of progress in U.S.-Iran peace talks while continuing to price the prospect of further Federal Reserve tightening this year. In a key development, Washington granted Tehran a 60-day licence to sell oil into international markets, raising expectations of a faster recovery in global supply.

At the same time, markets remained positioned for a hawkish Fed after last week’s policy stance and upgraded inflation projections. Deutsche Bank and Bank of America Global Research have both updated their forecasts to include a rate hike in September. Investors are now focused on this week’s PCE report, which includes the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and may offer fresh clues on underlying price pressure.

From a sentiment perspective, the dollar is being pulled by two competing forces. On one side, expectations for a more hawkish Fed are strengthening. On the other, easing geopolitical risk is reducing safe-haven demand. Which factor dominates in the short term will determine the Dollar Index’s next move.

Technically, the daily chart remains in a clear uptrend. The index continues to trade above its major moving averages and remains firmly above the 100 psychological level, indicating that the medium-term bullish structure is intact. MACD is above the zero line; although the red momentum bars have narrowed, the broader setup remains constructive. Key resistance is seen at 101.50, 102.00 and 103.00. A breakout could refresh the recent high. Support sits near 100.50 and 100.00.

Today’s technical idea: consider shorting the Dollar Index at 101.45, with a stop-loss at 101.55 and targets at 101.05 and 101.00.

AUD/USD
The Australian dollar fell further below 0.70 against the U.S. dollar, reaching an 11-week low as the dollar continued to strengthen and investors turned cautious ahead of domestic inflation and employment data. These data may help indicate whether the RBA has reached the end of its tightening cycle. Headline inflation for May is expected to rise to 4.4% from 4.2% in April, while core measures may edge up to 3.5% from 3.4%, both above the central bank’s target range. Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser is expected to discuss the inflation outlook after the CPI release.

On employment, the market expects a net increase of 25,000 jobs in May, while the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4.4% after reaching a four-and-a-half-year high of 4.5% in the previous month. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has strengthened further as markets continue to price the possibility of Fed hikes this year, reinforced by hawkish remarks from policymakers. Elsewhere, the risk-sensitive Australian dollar received some support from early signs of progress in U.S.-Iran peace talks.

In the short term, AUD/USD remains highly dependent on global risk appetite. As a commodity-linked and risk-sensitive currency, the Australian dollar is particularly responsive to geopolitical developments and shifts in safe-haven demand. When risk appetite rises, the AUD tends to attract buyers; when risk aversion increases, it is vulnerable to selling pressure.

The daily chart shows that AUD/USD has been correcting since its previous high near 0.7270. It is now trading below 0.7000 and testing the key 0.6900 support. The moving-average structure has turned short-term bearish, with the MA20 and MA50 both capping price. The pair remains below short-term averages, although the MA100 and MA200 continue to slope higher, meaning the medium- to long-term uptrend has not fully broken. Momentum indicators have also weakened: MACD remains below the zero line with bearish momentum intact, while RSI at 37.51 is below the 50 midline but not yet oversold. If 0.6900 breaks decisively, the next downside reference is the prior low near 0.6855, around the 200-day moving average. Initial resistance is at 0.7000, followed by the 0.7071 area near the 20-day moving average.

Today’s technical idea: consider going long AUD/USD at 0.6908, with a stop-loss at 0.6900 and targets at 0.6950 and 0.6960.

GBP/USD
GBP/USD came under pressure on Tuesday, falling toward 1.3200. The resignation of U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer triggered concerns over the fiscal-policy outlook and prompted selling in sterling. At the same time, hawkish signals from new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh accelerated expectations for additional rate hikes this year, keeping the U.S. dollar strong. With U.K. political uncertainty and dollar strength working in the same direction, GBP/USD remains under short-term pressure, while investors await upcoming U.K. and U.S. PMI data.

On the news front, Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced his resignation on Monday. The move followed a major political shock for Labour in last week’s Wakefield by-election, where Andy Burnham’s victory intensified calls within the party for leadership change. Under sustained pressure, Starmer ultimately decided to step down, pushing U.K. politics back into uncertainty. Markets are also waiting for preliminary S&P Global PMI data from the U.K. and the U.S. If U.S. activity remains resilient while the U.K. economy weakens, the gap in economic fundamentals could widen further and reinforce the dollar’s advantage over sterling.

The core drivers for GBP/USD remain U.K. political risk, the Fed’s hawkish stance and broad U.S. dollar strength. Without a fresh positive catalyst, sterling may continue to face downside pressure. Technically, GBP/USD has broken below its previous consolidation range on the daily chart, with a downtrend gradually taking shape. Price is trading below the major moving averages, indicating a broadly bearish structure. MACD remains below the zero line and the expanding green momentum bars show that sellers are in control. Key resistance is at 1.3300 and 1.3380; if the pair cannot reclaim 1.3300, rebound potential is likely limited. Further resistance is near 1.3450. Support is at 1.3200, 1.3150 and 1.3100.

Today’s technical idea: consider going long GBP/USD at 1.3190, with a stop-loss at 1.3180 and targets at 1.3250 and 1.3260.

USD/JPY
USD/JPY traded in a narrow range around 161.50 during Tuesday’s Asian session. Although the U.S. dollar remained relatively strong, rising concern that the Japanese government may intervene in the FX market again limited further upside. As geopolitical risk premiums eased, safe-haven demand weakened, reducing some support for the yen as a traditional defensive currency. However, the yen’s recent depreciation has drawn significant attention from Japanese authorities, who have signalled readiness to take appropriate action against excessive currency volatility. Markets have widely interpreted that message as another intervention warning.

With USD/JPY approaching levels at which Japan previously intervened in the currency market, investors remain highly alert to potential action. As the pair moves closer to 162, discussion of possible intervention has intensified. Japan’s finance authorities may still stabilise the exchange rate by directly buying yen to prevent import costs from rising further and adding to domestic inflation pressure.

The current global setup leaves USD/JPY driven by two major forces: hawkish Fed expectations, which support the dollar, and rising intervention risk from Japan, which caps the pair. Under these opposing pressures, USD/JPY may remain in a high-level, wide-range consolidation pattern in the short term.

Technically, the daily chart remains in a clear uptrend. Price is still above the major moving averages and the medium- to long-term bullish structure has not changed. MACD remains above the zero line, indicating that bulls still hold an overall advantage. Key resistance is the 162.00 psychological level. A decisive break and hold above this area could open the door toward 163.50 and 165.00. However, given the clear rise in Japanese intervention risk, chasing the pair higher at elevated levels requires caution. Support is located near 160.00 and 160.31, the 50-day moving average; a break below these levels could trigger a larger correction.

Today’s technical idea: consider shorting USD/JPY at 161.70, with a stop-loss at 161.85 and targets at 160.80 and 160.70.

EUR/USD
EUR/USD traded in a tight range on Tuesday, hovering just below 1.1400. Over the previous four sessions, the pair had fallen by more than 1.5%. In the U.S., both manufacturing and services activity are expected to remain in expansion. Strong demand and firm price components, including new orders and prices paid, would fit the prevailing narrative that the U.S. economy remains resilient and that the Federal Reserve may need to restart rate hikes this year. Any data that challenges this view could marginally weaken the dollar.

The dollar’s strength at the start of the week is notable because it coincided with a sharp drop in crude oil prices, breaking a correlation seen often in recent months. Despite lower energy prices, dollar buying emerged early in the European session and pushed the greenback higher across the board. Part of the move may reflect another shift in Fed expectations. Reports that Bank of America and Deutsche Bank now expect the Fed to resume rate hikes this year have reinforced an already visible trend in market pricing. After last week’s hawkish turn from Fed Chair Warsh, expectations for multiple hikes have supported dollar demand.

Although the dollar is broadly in a net bearish cycle over the longer term, relatively weaker growth in Europe, limited German fiscal expansion and political uncertainty in the euro area may cap euro appreciation. EUR/USD is currently trading around the 1.1300-1.1558 zone, where 1.1300 is the psychological level and 1.1558 is near the 20-day moving average. In the short term, if U.S. data remain strong, downside risk for the euro is meaningful. The initial target would be 1.1350, with a break pointing to the 1.1300 psychological level.

RSI is hovering around 31. Momentum indicators suggest that even if EUR/USD attempts to stabilise above recent lows, downward pressure remains. Any subsequent bounce is more likely to meet resistance around the previous support break at 1.1473, the week’s early low, and 1.1512, near the nine-day moving average, before the 1.1600 round number. Over the medium to long term, policy divergence and global risk appetite will determine the scale of any rebound.

Today’s technical idea: consider going long EUR/USD at 1.1370, with a stop-loss at 1.1360 and targets at 1.1435 and 1.1445.

Commodity Analysis
WTI Spot Crude Oil
WTI crude oil fell below USD 73 per barrel on Tuesday, extending the previous session’s decline and reaching its lowest level in nearly three months as signs of progress in U.S.-Iran peace talks eased supply concerns. In an important development, Washington granted Iran a 60-day licence to sell oil on international markets, raising expectations of a rapid increase in global supply. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has increased, producers including Kuwait and the UAE are using alternative export routes, and Iran has shipped more than 30 million barrels of oil over the past week. However, uncertainty around Iran’s nuclear programme remains, as Iranian media reports denied Vice President Vance’s claim that Tehran would allow inspectors to return to the country.

With the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance, concerns that a high-rate environment could suppress energy demand remain a key reason for recent pressure on oil prices. Technically, WTI’s daily chart remains in a weak consolidation structure. Price has continued to trade inside a descending channel since pulling back from recent highs, but it is now approaching an important medium- to long-term support zone. The 200-day moving average is near USD 72.94, which has also acted as an important multi-month bull-bear dividing line.

Momentum is showing some early signs of stabilisation. MACD remains below the zero line, but the green histogram bars have begun to shorten, suggesting that bearish momentum is weakening. Key resistance is at USD 75.50 and USD 77.00. A reclaim of USD 77.00 would open room for a broader rebound. Downside support is at USD 72.00 and USD 71.50; if these levels fail, WTI could test the USD 70.00 psychological level.

Today’s technical idea: consider going long WTI crude at 72.70, with a stop-loss at 72.50 and targets at 75.00 and 76.00.

Spot Gold
Gold fell below USD 4,115 per ounce on Tuesday, giving back the previous session’s gains as firm expectations for Fed rate hikes outweighed optimism over U.S.-Iran peace talks. Deutsche Bank and Bank of America Global Research have revised their forecasts to include a rate hike in September. Investors are now focused on this week’s PCE report, which contains the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and is expected to provide further insight into underlying price pressures.

Meanwhile, Washington has granted Iran a 60-day licence to sell oil into international markets, lifting expectations for a faster recovery in global supply. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has also increased, while producers such as Kuwait and the UAE are seeking alternative export routes. Iran has shipped more than 30 million barrels of oil over the past week.

From a flow perspective, safe-haven capital is waiting for clearer signals on the Middle East situation and U.S. economic data. Over the coming days, U.S. inflation indicators, labour-market performance and energy-price movements will remain key drivers for gold. If oil prices rise again due to renewed geopolitical risk, gold could regain buying support. Conversely, if U.S.-Iran relations continue to improve and the Fed maintains a hawkish stance, gold may face further corrective pressure.

Technically, the daily chart for gold remains in a high-level consolidation pattern. Price is still above the major moving averages, meaning the medium- to long-term uptrend has not been broken, although recent upside momentum has slowed. MACD remains above the zero line, but the red histogram bars continue to contract, showing that bullish momentum has weakened materially from earlier levels. Key resistance is at USD 4,182, near the five-day moving average, and USD 4,200, the psychological level. A decisive breakout could reopen a challenge of the historical high. Support lies at USD 4,067, the 10 June low, and USD 4,024, the 11 June low. A break below these levels could trigger a deeper correction.

Today’s technical idea: consider going long spot gold at 4,105, with a stop-loss at 4,100 and targets at 4,160 and 4,170.