US Dollar Index

The US dollar index traded below 99.00 during Wednesday's session, slightly down, after rising more than 0.5% in the previous session. Investors are awaiting a series of labor market reports that could affect the Fed's policy outlook. The focus now turns to Thursday's weekly unemployment claims data and Friday's closely watched May employment report. Despite pressure from President Trump to cut interest rates, Fed officials mostly support keeping interest rates stable for the time being, citing trade policy uncertainty. The dollar weakened across the board, with the most notable decline against the Korean won, following the election of opposition leader Lee Jae-myung as president, easing political uncertainty in the region.

On the daily chart, technical analysis suggests a persistent bearish bias, with the index consolidating within a descending channel. The US dollar index remains below its 20-day simple moving average of 99.27, indicating weak short-term momentum. In addition, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator is below the 45 level, showing a dominant bearish bias. On the downside, the US dollar index may retest the 98.60{early week low}, and 98.00{round mark} area. On the other hand, if the index breaks above the 99.60{14-day simple moving average} key resistance area, a bullish bias may emerge and lead the index to test the 5100.00{market psychological barrier level.

Today, consider shorting the US dollar index around 98.93, stop loss: 99.08, target: 98.50, 98.40

WTI spot crude oil

WTI crude oil prices retreated slightly to around $62.20 per barrel on Wednesday as OPEC+ plans to increase production continued to ease concerns about tightening global supplies. Rainfall in Canada also helped slow wildfires that disrupted about 7% of the country's oil production, allowing at least one oil sands operator to resume operations. Industrial data showed a sharp drop in U.S. crude oil inventories, with inventories falling by 3.3 million barrels last week, far exceeding expectations of a 900,000 barrel drop. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks continue to support prices. Concerns about potential supply disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict remain a concern. In addition, an Iranian diplomat said Tehran may reject a U.S. proposal aimed at resolving the long-standing nuclear dispute.

From a technical perspective, U.S. WTI crude oil continues to trade above the 20-day simple moving average of 61.58 on the daily chart, showing some short-term support. However, recent prices have encountered significant resistance near $64.05 {May-21 high}, and $65.44 {89-day simple moving average}, with long upper shadows for two consecutive days, indicating that bullish momentum has weakened. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator is around 52, close to the neutral zone, indicating that the current market sentiment is on the sidelines. If $65.44 cannot be effectively broken in the short term, there is a risk of a pullback to the $62 support zone. The next level is $61.62 {9-day simple moving average}, and $60.00 {market psychological barrier}.

Consider going long on WTI crude oil near 62.00 today, stop loss: 61.80, target: 63.20, 63.40

Spot gold

Gold prices rose to around $3,370 per ounce on Wednesday, recovering some of the losses of the previous trading day, as rising geopolitical and economic risks boosted its safe-haven appeal. Gold buyers eagerly awaited the release of high-impact US data and speeches by Fed policymakers for continued gains. The deadline for the Trump administration to ask its trading partners to submit their best offers by Wednesday is approaching, while tariffs on imported steel and aluminum will take effect at 4:00 GMT, doubling the tax rate to 50%. The dollar-denominated precious metal may receive a short-term boost from a new round of declines in the US dollar after the US steel and aluminum tariffs take effect.

From the technical trend observation, as long as the gold price remains above the 21-day simple moving average of $3,297 and the $3,300 {market psychological barrier}, the short-term technical outlook remains positive. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart is pointing above 57 and comfortably above the midline, proving the sustainability of the uptrend. Gold buyers must break through the $3,371.80 {23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 2956.70 to 3,500.10} resistance on a daily closing basis to resume the rise towards the $3,400 mark. Then the May high of $3,439. Conversely, sellers may try to take control on a break below the current resistance-turned-support at $3,325 {one line on the equilateral triangle on the daily chart}. The next support is at the 21-day simple moving average of $3,297 and $3,300 {market psychological mark}.

Consider going long on gold near 3,365 today, stop loss: 3,360, target: 3,390, 3,395.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar stabilized around $0.6480 on Wednesday, after falling more than 0.5% the previous day, as a weaker dollar offset the impact of weak domestic GDP data. The dollar slowed ahead of the release of the May employment report, which may affect the Fed's policy outlook. Meanwhile, Australia's GDP grew by only 0.2% in the first quarter, far below expectations and previous quarters, reinforcing market expectations for further rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia. The Reserve Bank of Australia has already cut interest rates twice this year, and the market has currently priced in an 80% probability of another rate cut in July. Despite the weak data, investors are somewhat relieved that the results are not terrible, supporting the Australian dollar near current levels.

AUD/USD traded around 0.6480 on Wednesday, showing a continued bullish bias. Technical analysis on the daily chart shows that the pair is still in an ascending channel pattern. Short-term price momentum remains strong, with the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart above 50, indicating a sustained bullish outlook. On the upside, AUD/USD faces first resistance at 0.6500 {a psychological level}, and then near 0.6537, a seven-month high set on May 26. A break above this initial resistance could support the pair to explore the 0.6600 level. Immediate support comes at the 200-day moving average at 0.6438, and a successful break below this key support area could weaken the bullish bias and lead AUD/USD to test the 0.6400 round-figure level.

Consider going long on AUD around 0.6475 today, stop loss: 0.6460, target: 0.6530, 0.6540

GBP/USD

GBP/USD edged higher after a decline in the previous session, trading around 1.3550 during Wednesday's session. As the US dollar attracts selling amid the backdrop of rising tariff uncertainty, it may lead to appreciation of the currency pair, which earlier hit a high of 1.3590, forming a "sell America" ​​trend, which may hurt the growth of the US economy. Traders are awaiting the US non-farm payrolls report for May, which is expected to show an increase of 130,000 jobs. Bank of England officials attended a monetary policy report hearing before Congress to share the central bank's policy outlook. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey once again expressed his belief that interest rates may be cut; however, he stressed that the path ahead is increasingly uncertain.

GBP/USD found intraday technical support at the 1.3500 mark, helping to keep bids in the market. GBP bulls are beginning to show pressure to maintain price action at high levels, but bears are equally weak as the pair is well above key long-term moving averages. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart remains above 50 and GBP/USD remains above the rising trend line, reflecting a lack of seller interest. On the upside, 1.3550 (midpoint of the ascending channel) acts as the first resistance level, ahead of which are 1.3600 (round mark) and 1.36500. Looking down, support levels may be at 1.3500 (market psychological mark), 1.3430 (100-hour moving average) and 1.3400 (round mark).

Today, consider going long on GBP around 1.3535, stop loss: 1.3522, target: 1.3590, 1.3595

USD/JPY

On Wednesday, the yen remained around 143.00 against the dollar, after falling nearly 1% the previous day, with the dollar's retreat helping to stabilize the currency. Traders remained cautious ahead of the release of key U.S. labor market reports that could affect the Fed's policy stance. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated on Tuesday that the central bank is willing to raise interest rates again if economic and inflation forecasts are realized, reinforcing expectations for a slow and cautious policy normalization. Ueda also noted that the Japanese economy is in a mild recovery phase, supported by strong corporate earnings and solid business confidence, although some weak spots remain. Investors are now awaiting the release of labor market and household spending data later this week for further insights into the domestic economic outlook.

Technical indicators on the daily chart are recovering and have just begun to gain positive traction on the 4-hour chart. This in turn favors USD/JPY bulls, although caution is needed as support above the 200-hour simple moving average of 144.06 is not found during the day. Therefore, it would be wise to wait for sustained buying around the Asian session high of 144.30 before considering further gains. The spot price is likely to target the psychological mark of 145.00, with some intermediate resistance around the 144.75-144.80 area. On the other hand, 142.50 now seems to be acting as an immediate support, and a break below this level could see the pair slide to the 142.10-142.00 area, followed by the 141.67 {April 22 low} area, and hit the 141.00 round mark.

Consider shorting USD around 143.00 today, Stop Loss: 143.28, Target: 142.00 , 141.80

EUR/USD

EUR/USD has pared its previous losses and is now trading above 1.1400. An unexpected upward revision in the Eurozone Services PMI, to 49.7 from 48.9 previously, provided a fresh boost to the euro. After retreating from a six-week high in the 1.1455 area at the start of the week on an unexpected increase in US job vacancies, the euro reversed direction after the unexpectedly revised Eurozone Services PMI data showed a smaller-than-expected contraction in activity in the sector. Demand remains weak, dragging down the overall reading. While the Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in below expectations, paving the way for the ECB to continue easing monetary policy in the coming months. The ECB is actually kicking off a two-day monetary policy meeting and is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut on Thursday.

EUR/USD hit a six-week high of 1.1455 on Tuesday, but failed to hold at that level and has retreated to fluctuate around 1.1400-1.1420. The current trend remains positive, but technical indicators in the 4-hour chart are close to the mid-50 area, while the US dollar index is gaining momentum. Correlation studies suggest that the index may correct further on Wednesday. The 1.1337 {75-hour simple moving average} level currently restrains bears, and the next support area is in the 1.1300 {round mark} area. On the upside, immediate resistance is at Tuesday's high of 1.1455, and a breakout points to the market psychological level of 1.1500.

Today, you can consider going long on Euro around 1.1405, stop loss: 1.1390, target: 1.1450, 1.1460

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