Dollar Index

The dollar index continued to fall to 98.35 on Thursday, hitting its lowest level since April 21, as a series of new economic data deepened concerns about the US economic outlook. The dollar index fell, driven by a new round of political pressure on the Federal Reserve and escalating trade tensions. Although the index is still fluctuating in a narrow range, the technical outlook has become fragile and clearly bearish. The recent trend of the US dollar has been affected by a combination of factors, including a series of weak US economic data that has raised new concerns about the US outlook, and the uncertainty brought about by Trump's tariff remarks remains one of the biggest risks facing the US dollar. The continued game of the Fed's monetary policy outlook and policy uncertainty may cause a significant drag on the US economy, especially against the backdrop of a tense global trade environment.

The latest decline in the dollar index to around 98.70, approaching Tuesday's six-week low of 98.60, testing the support level around 97.91 in late April. The dollar index is still facing bearish pressure. A break above 99.21 {9-day SMA} could trigger short covering towards the resistance level of 99.43 {14-day SMA}, with the 14-day RSI (relative strength index) below 42 on the daily chart, showing a dominant bearish bias. On the downside, traders are closely watching for a breakout of 98.58 {early week low}, which, if broken, would open the door to 98.00 {round number}, and 97.91 {previous low}.

Today, consider shorting the US dollar index around 98.90, stop loss: 99.00, target: 98.300, 98.20

WTI spot crude oil

US crude oil traded around $62.60 per barrel on Thursday, and US oil closed lower on Wednesday after US data showed an unexpectedly large increase in gasoline and diesel inventories, OPEC+ plans to increase production leading to bloated fuel supplies, and trade tensions cast a shadow on the outlook for energy demand. Earlier, U.S. data showed an unexpectedly large increase in gasoline and diesel inventories, OPEC+ plans to increase production, leading to bloated fuel supplies, and trade tensions cast a shadow on the outlook for energy demand. Meanwhile, some production operations in Canada that were shut down due to wildfires have restarted on Wednesday. According to Reuters calculations on Tuesday, wildfires in Canada have reduced the country's production by about 344,000 barrels per day.

From the daily chart, WTI crude oil may fall back to $60.00 per barrel {market psychological barrier} as it looks unstable near the resistance area of ​​$64.04 {May 21 high}, and $64.00 {round mark}. In terms of technical trends, if the market breaks through the $64.00-64.04 area, then WTI crude oil can further challenge $65.31 {50-day simple moving average}. However, the spinning top pattern on June 3 {usually seen as a signal of market turning}. It indicates the dissipation of bullish momentum. The contract may fall back to $61.59 {9-day simple moving average}, and $60.00 {market psychological barrier} levels.

Today, consider going long on WTI crude oil around 62.45, stop loss: 62.25, target: 63.80, 64.00

Spot gold

Gold prices gave up earlier gains after the latest news showed that the call between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping was positive, mainly discussing trade. Gold/USD traded at $3,352, down 0.72%. Gold prices hit a four-week high during the European trading session on Thursday, rising to nearly $3,400. The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset has technically increased due to the increased uncertainty over a potential trade deal between the United States and China. Another reason for the rise in gold prices is the significant decline in US Treasury yields. In theory, lower yields on interest-bearing assets will increase demand for non-yielding assets (such as gold). The 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen to nearly 4.35%, the lowest level in four weeks. The focus now turns to Friday's non-farm payrolls report for further signals on the Fed's policy path.

Gold prices jumped to nearly $3,400 on Thursday. The precious metal rose after stabilizing above an ascending trendline of about $3,335 on the daily chart, which was drawn from the high of $2,726 on December 12. The short-term trend of gold prices is bullish as the 14-day simple moving average is sloping up above about $3,323. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart is below 60.00. If the RSI breaks above this level, new bullish momentum will emerge. Looking up, gold prices may rise to the May 7 high of about $3,440 and the all-time high of $3,500.10 after stabilizing above $3,400. On the other hand, if gold falls below the $3,325 {upper line of the equilateral triangle on the daily chart} support level. The next support is at $3,300 {market psychological level}, and the 21-day simple moving average of $3,297, regional levels.

Consider going long on gold near $3,347 today, stop loss: 3,342, target: 3,375, 3,380.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar held recent gains near $0.6500 on Thursday as a weaker U.S. dollar and a rise in China's services purchasing managers' index (PMI) offset a decline in the domestic trade surplus. The dollar continued to be under pressure amid weak U.S. economic data. The Australian dollar found further support after China's Caixin services PMI, a key indicator for its largest trading partner, rose to 51.1 in May from 50.7 in April, indicating continued expansion. Meanwhile, Australia's trade surplus narrowed to A$5.41 billion in April, below expectations. On the geopolitical front, trade developments also attracted attention, with Trump calling dealing with Xi "extremely difficult" despite earlier signs that the two leaders may speak this week, while China has set its sights on a major Airbus deal in a shift towards closer ties with the European Union.

The AUD/USD pair traded above 0.6500 on Thursday, continuing its bullish outlook. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart is above 55, suggesting a bullish outlook. Short-term analysis shows that the pair remains within an ascending channel pattern. Short-term price momentum is strong as the pair remains above the 20-day simple moving average of 0.6444. Moreover, on the upside, AUD/USD could target the seven-month high of 0.6537 set on May 26 and 0.6538 {Thursday's high}. Further gains would explore the market's psychological barrier area around 0.6600. As for the downside, the 20-day simple moving average of 0.6444 becomes the first support level, and if it breaks, it will test the 0.6400 round number level.

Today, you can consider going long on the Australian dollar around 0.6495, stop loss: 0.6480, target: 0.6540, 0.6550

GBP/USD

GBP/USD rose to nearly 1.3620 during the European trading session on Thursday. The pair rose as the US dollar experienced a sharp sell-off on Wednesday. The US dollar was affected by a series of disappointing US economic data in May due to the tariff policy implemented by US President Trump after returning to the White House. Investors welcomed strong British economic data and new defense plans. In addition, the US dollar weakened after President Trump announced plans to double steel and aluminum tariffs, while China hit back at trade accusations. On the data front, the UK manufacturing industry fell less than expected in May. Investors now expect that the Bank of England is unlikely to cut interest rates further this year. Although some Federal Reserve officials are expected to be present in the upcoming US market trading session.

From the daily chart, the exchange rate is currently oscillating between the upper rail and the middle axis of the Bollinger Channel, and the overall fluctuation is maintained in the oscillation box between 1.3500 and 1.3650. The middle axis of the Bollinger Channel is located at 1.3379, which constitutes a stage support; the Bollinger Channel is located at 1.3602, which suppresses the exchange rate. The exchange rate formed a local high point near 1.3592, and the next level is 1.3650, indicating that the upward momentum is gradually increasing. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is stable at 60, which is at a medium-high level and has not yet reached the overbought area, indicating that the market has not shown obvious signs of overdraft. The support below focuses on the integer of 1.3500. If it falls below, it may drop to 1.3460{16-day moving average} water.

Consider going long GBP around 1.3555 today, stop loss: 1.3540, target: 1.3600, 1.3610

USD/JPY

The yen remained stable around 143.50 on Thursday, having risen nearly 1% the previous day, supported by broad dollar weakness amid disappointing US economic data. Recent indicators have pointed to a sharp slowdown in private sector employment, with an unexpected contraction in the US services sector raising concerns, while domestic data showed that real wages fell for a fourth straight month in April, with inflation continuing to outpace nominal wage growth. This deepened concerns about Japan's economic outlook, especially amid rising global uncertainty, with US tariffs on the rise. Weak wage data also complicates the Bank of Japan's path toward policy normalization. However, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated on Tuesday that the central bank remains ready to raise interest rates if economic and inflation forecasts are met, reinforcing expectations of a gradual tightening cycle.

From a technical perspective, overnight failure near the 100-hour simple moving average of 144.18 on the 4-hour chart and the subsequent decline favored USD/JPY bears. In addition, the 14-hour 1 relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator USD/JPY on the 4-hour chart is at 43 and remains in the negative zone, indicating that the path of least resistance for the spot price is downward. Therefore, any further gains may be seen as selling opportunities around the 143.70 area and may be limited around the 144.00 mark. Next is the 144.18 (100-hour simple moving average on the 4-hour chart), and the 145.00 {round mark} area. On the other hand, this week's lows in the 142.45-142.50 area may provide some support for USD/JPY, followed by the 142.00 {round mark} area. If the latter is effectively broken, it will slide further to the next relevant support level around the 141.60 area.

Consider shorting the dollar near 143.95 today, stop loss: 144.20, target: 142.80, 142.70

EUR/USD

The European Central Bank announced on Thursday that it would cut key interest rates by 25 basis points after the June monetary policy meeting, as expected. According to the decision, the main refinancing operation rate, marginal lending facility rate and deposit facility rate will be 2.15%, 2.4% and 2% respectively. EUR/USD traded cautiously above the key level of 1.1400-1.1420, and rose to 1.1495, a near one-month high earlier. The ECB cut interest rates for the seventh time in a row as the eurozone's disinflationary trend remains unchanged. Consumer price index (HICP) data showed that inflationary pressures have fallen below the central bank's 2% target. Investors will closely watch the press conference of ECB President Christine Lagarde for clues on the possible monetary policy stance in the second half of the year. Meanwhile, the US dollar struggled near a six-week low, and weak US data revived stagflation risks.

EUR/USD is biased to the upside and could break through the weekly high of 1.1456 reached on June 3, but has not yet broken above 1.1500, paving the way for a correction, after which the upward trend may resume. It should be noted that the currency pair has made lower lows in the current trading session, which means that a daily close below 1.1357 {Wednesday's low} and my 1.1348 {14-day moving average} may lay the foundation for a test of the 1.1300 mark. On the other hand, if EUR/USD breaks through the weekly high of 1.1495, the next resistance level is 1.1500 {round mark}. Further gains are above, and the next resistance level is at the April high of 1.1573.

Today, consider going long on EUR near 1.1435, stop loss: 1.1422, target: 1.1490, 1.1500

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