US Dollar Index

The US dollar rebounded on Thursday, briefly retaking the 104.00 level as traders reacted to lower-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) data and positive jobless claims data. The dollar index initially jumped after the data was released, but then gave up some of its gains as investors weighed the impact of slowing inflation and underlying demand concerns. Meanwhile, US diplomats arrived in Russia for ceasefire talks in Ukraine and President Trump escalated trade tensions by threatening to impose 200% tariffs on European wine and champagne. On Thursday, the dollar remained stable, with the US dollar index hovering around 103.80 as traders digested the latest inflation index data. Both the headline and core data slowed faster than expected, reinforcing expectations of easing pre-US tariff pressures imposed recently. The US dollar index temporarily shook off a multi-day deep sell-off and retested the 104.00 area, accompanied by rising yields. Ultimately, the dollar managed to regain some stability and achieved acceptable gains after a multi-month low. However, the overall situation is still affected by intense tariff uncertainty and concerns about a US recession.

From the daily chart, the US dollar index remains under pressure, holding near the multi-month low below 104.00. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence divergence (MACD) of technical indicators show oversold conditions, prompting traders to pause aggressive selling. Despite the recent decline, a break below 103.23 {Tuesday's low}, and 103.00 {market psychological level} may open up further room for decline and further point to 102.52 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of 100.16 to 110.18). A rebound above 104.00 (round number level), and 104.05 (8-day simple moving average) may trigger a short-term rebound attempt. The next level will challenge the 10-day simple moving average at 104.66.

Consider shorting the US dollar index around 103.90 today, stop loss: 104.00, target: 103.50, 103.40

WTI spot crude oil

The latest report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that the escalation of the global trade war is suppressing oil consumption demand, causing international oil prices to come under pressure. WTI crude oil fell 1.35% on Thursday to around $66.50 per barrel. WTI crude oil traded at $67.40 in early Asian trading on Thursday. WTI prices continued to rebound due to tight crude oil inventories. However, the upside of WTI prices may be limited due to growing concerns about a slowdown in the US economy and the impact of tariffs on global economic growth. Crude oil inventories rose last week. This week, crude oil increased less than expected, indicating strong demand, which could lead to higher oil prices. Nevertheless, US President Donald Trump's aggressive tariffs on imported goods are expected to push up corporate costs, increase inflation, and weaken consumer confidence, thereby dealing a blow to economic growth. This in turn could drag down WTI prices. The White House confirmed on Tuesday that new 25% tariffs on all imported steel and aluminum will take effect on Wednesday, including tariffs on allies and major U.S. suppliers Canada and Mexico.

Crude oil prices benefit from short-term dollar weakness, but remain vulnerable to economic headwinds and policy uncertainty. A decisive breakout above $67.86 (14-day moving average), and $67.94 (March 7 high), could push oil prices toward $70.00 (market psychological barrier), but continued upside would require stronger demand signals or unexpected supply disruptions. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the daily chart's technical indicator is still in the negative zone (near 41.00), indicating that the short-term trend is still weak. WTI crude oil is neutral in the range of $66.56 per barrel (5-day moving average), and a breakout of this range may provide direction for future trends. Oil prices may signal a continuation of the downtrend to $65.88 (Wednesday low), and $65.05 {March 11 low) levels.

Consider going long on crude oil around 66.30 today, stop loss: 66.10; target: 67.50; 67.70

Spot gold

On Thursday, gold prices surged, with the yellow metal reaching a new record of $2,989 and looking to extend towards the target of $3,000. Uncertainty over US trade policy and the increased likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve supported the precious metal. Gold traded before $2,990, up 1.90%. Spot gold fluctuated narrowly around a two-week high in early Asian trading on Thursday, currently trading around $2,940/oz. As the growth of U.S. producer prices slowed in February, the Federal Reserve is expected to resume rate cuts in June, and Europe took retaliatory actions after Trump began to impose metal tariffs. Safe-haven demand once again provided upward momentum for gold prices, helping gold prices rise by nearly $56 on Thursday. Recent changes in the structure of positions reveal institutional trends. According to the latest CFTC report, as of the week of March 5, fund managers' net long positions in gold increased by 7,842 lots to 143,205 lots, marking the fourth consecutive week of increase. However, it is worth noting that commercial short positions increased by 4.2% at the same time, indicating that spot traders' hedging demand has increased. This simultaneous increase in long and short positions usually indicates that a major market is about to start.

From the daily chart, the upward channel formed by gold prices since March 5 remains intact, but the volatility has shown a gradually narrowing feature. The current price is running above $2,956 (previous historical high). The momentum indicator shows a divergence signal, and although the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) remains above 60, the MACD column continues to narrow and the two lines tend to stick together, suggesting that the market is about to choose a direction to break through. In terms of key support, the $2,956 integer mark superimposed on the "small double top" of $2,930 forms a double defense. If it breaks down unexpectedly, the $2,900 area (market psychological mark) will provide secondary support. On the upside, special attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the breakthrough of the historical resistance range of $2,9900. Then comes the market-recognized psychological mark of $3,000.

Today, you can consider going long on gold before 2,987.00, stop loss: 2,982.00; target: 3,000.00; 3.020.00

AUD/USD

AUD/USD fell to around 0.6280 as the Trump administration's tariff agenda made the US dollar outperform other currencies. The pair faced intense selling pressure on Thursday as concerns over a global economic slowdown reignited safe-haven demand for the dollar. Investors largely ignored weak U.S. CPI and PPI data for February and instead focused on U.S. President Donald Trump’s tough trade stance. His renewed commitment to an “America First” policy has stoked fears of retaliatory measures, weighing on risk-sensitive assets such as the Australian dollar. The Australian dollar depreciated against the U.S. dollar for the third consecutive session on Thursday, giving up intraday gains. However, AUD/USD found some support amid ongoing uncertainty over U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and heightened concerns over a potential recession in the U.S. The pair’s gains, however, could be limited as Trump ruled out exempting Australia from his 25% aluminum and steel tariffs.

AUD/USD traded close to 0.6320 on Thursday, with technical analysis on the daily chart showing the pair moving above its nine-day moving average (0.6297), suggesting stronger short-term price momentum. In addition, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) technical indicator rose slightly above 50, indicating a bullish bias. On the upside, the AUD/USD pair finds first support at the 100-day moving average of 0.6352, and further could explore the area close to the three-month high of 0.6409, which was last reached on February 21. The AUD/USD pair could find immediate support near the low of 0.6258 recorded this week. A break below this level could weaken short-term momentum and cause the pair to hover around the 0.6200 round number.

Consider going long on AUD before 0.6270 today, stop loss: 0.6260; target: 0.6320; 0.6330.

GBP/USD

On Thursday, GBP/USD hovered around 1.2950 as the strong US dollar halted the pair's momentum, while investor concerns about the health of the US economy and upcoming tariffs kept the market cautious. GBP/USD attempted to extend its third day of gains during the Asian session on Thursday, trading around 1.2960. GBP/USD gained while the dollar faced resistance amid continued tariff uncertainty from US President Trump and concerns about a potential US recession. The dollar could lose further ground as US inflation cooled more than expected in February, sparking speculation that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates sooner than expected. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer expressed optimism that the UK can avoid US tariffs on steel and aluminum, stressing a "pragmatic approach" in negotiations while keeping all options open. Unlike the EU, which has said it will retaliate immediately against Trump's tariffs, the UK reiterated its commitment to trade talks with the US. Investors now look forward to UK monthly GDP data for January on Friday, which could provide further insights into the country's economic outlook.

GBP/USD is expected to continue to rise despite a decline in US inflation data on Wednesday. It is experiencing its second consecutive week of gains, approaching a new 18-week high of 1.2990. The significant 1.3000 resistance level may limit any additional gains as this key level served as a prominent consolidation point in October and November 2024. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a technical indicator on the daily chart, shows that buyers are taking a break as the RSI is in overbought conditions {latest at around 71.00}. Currently, buyer demand is strong, but technical indicators have been in overbought territory since January, suggesting a potential reversal could happen soon. If GBP/USD turns down and breaks above 1.2900, it could test the support of the 9-day simple moving average at 1.2882. On the other hand, once the pair breaks above 1.2990 (this week's high), the next resistance will be the psychological level of 1.3000. Once it breaks through, the next target will be the high of November 6, 1.3048.

Today, it is recommended to go long on GBP before 1.2938, stop loss: 1.2926, target: 1.2990, 1.3000

USD/JPY

USD/JPY fell to just below 148.00 during the North American trading session on Thursday. The cautious risk tone and concerns over a global trade war supported the yen, dragging it lower. The pair also faced headwinds from diverging policy expectations between the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve. The yen traded in a narrow range against the U.S. dollar during Thursday's Asian session, weighed down by mixed fundamental signals. Investors remain concerned that U.S. President Donald Trump may impose new tariffs on Japan. This, combined with generally positive risk sentiment, weakened the safe-haven yen. However, the chaotic implementation of Trump's tariffs and their impact on the global economy may provide some support to the yen. Moreover, rising market expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue to hike interest rates as inflation in Japan rises, further limiting the yen's downside. Meanwhile, hawkish BoJ expectations have kept Japanese government bond yields near multi-year highs. The narrowing of interest rate differentials between Japan and other countries has become another contributor to the yen's low yields. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar hovered near multi-month lows as the market expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates several times this year. This in turn failed to help the USD/JPY to capitalize on the mild rebound from the multi-month lows hit on Tuesday.

From a technical perspective, the failure to find support above the 149.00 round-figure mark overnight and the subsequent pullback validated the negative outlook for the USD/JPY. Moreover, the oscillators on the daily chart are deeply in the bearish zone and are still far from entering the oversold zone. This in turn suggests that the path of least resistance for the spot price remains to the downside. Therefore, a break below the 148.00 mark could expose the next relevant support around the 147.20 area, following which the pair could slide further below 147.00 to retest the multi-month lows of the 146.55-146.50 area hit on Tuesday. On the other hand, the 148.60-148.70 area now appears to be an immediate obstacle before the 148.00 mark and the overnight high of the 149.20 area. A sustained strong break above the latter could trigger a short-term covering rally that could allow the USD/JPY pair to recapture the 150.00 psychological mark.

Today, it is recommended to short the US dollar before 148.00, stop loss: 148.25; target: 147.30, 147.20

EUR/USD

On Thursday, EUR/USD remained low, hovering around 1.0850 on the backdrop of renewed strength in the US dollar and growing concerns about US trade policy. The escalating trade tensions between the United States and the European Union exerted some selling pressure on the euro. Weaker buying of EUR/USD has caused the pair to retreat and pushed buying back below the major price mark of 1.0900. Despite a significant rebound in EUR/USD over the past few weeks, buyers have begun to retreat after adjusting the pair by more than 5% in less than two weeks. US President Trump said that the United States will respond to the EU's countermeasures against his new 25% steel and aluminum tariffs, increasing the risk of further escalation in their global trade war. However, the downside of the currency pair may be limited due to concerns that Trump's protectionism will push the US economy into a recession, which may put pressure on the US dollar.

EUR/USD looks like it may be ending its recent bull run, currently trading around 1.0900. Nonetheless, the pair has rebounded nearly 7.6% from its recent major low of 1.0175, with bulls easily breaking above the 200-day moving average (1.0722) in the process. From a technical perspective, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) remains in overbought territory (last seen at 71.80), but has started to flatten out, suggesting a pause in buying pressure. Meanwhile, the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) continues to show green bars, suggesting that the overall bullish trend remains intact. However, the lack of immediate follow-through from buyers suggests that further gains may not be forthcoming anytime soon. Initial resistance is faced with technical resistance from 1.0947 (this week’s high), and the psychological 1.0900 mark. A break above this level could open the door to the psychological 1.1000 mark. On the downside, initial support is around the psychological level of 1.0800, and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) around 1.0722 may attract stronger buying interest.

Today, it is recommended to go long on the euro before 1.0838, stop loss: 1.0825, target: 1.0900, 1.0910.

Disclaimer: The information contained herein (1) is proprietary to BCR and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely; and, (4) does not constitute advice or a recommendation by BCR or its content providers in respect of the investment in financial instruments. Neither BCR or its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.