US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index traded in the 104.20 area on Tuesday, showing little directional bias following a series of weak US economic data releases. A lower-than-expected ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), a drop in job openings and cautious comments from the Federal Reserve clouded the outlook for the dollar. Despite a small gain, the technical backdrop remains fragile and traders look forward to further macro drivers later this week. Traders appear to be more focused on economic signals than trade tensions, while gold prices, on the other hand, have failed to benefit from risk aversion amid heightened safe-haven inflows, highlighting a weakening sensitivity to tariff news. Data last week showed a decline in consumer confidence and rising inflation expectations, weakening the dollar's appeal. Market participants are increasingly pricing in stagnation risks, reducing the dollar's appeal as a safe haven. Treasury yields fell and investors flocked to bonds, limiting the dollar's upside potential.

The US Dollar Index showed mixed technical signals at the start of the week, trading near the top of the intraday range near 104.40. The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicator, although still in negative territory, has issued a buy signal, while long-term indicators remain bearish: the 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages, as well as the 30-day moving average, are all pointing downwards. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is neutral at 16.955, and the Average Directional Index (ADX) is close to 29, indicating moderate trend strength. Therefore, the short-term key resistance levels are 104.40 (early week high), 104.84 (30-day simple moving average), and 105.00 (round number), while support levels are clustered around 103.75 (early week low), 2025 low 103.20 (March 11), and 103.00 (round number).

Consider shorting the US dollar index near 104.35 today, stop loss: 104.50, target: 103.90, 103.80

WTI spot crude oil

On Thursday (March 27), international oil prices rose slightly as market participants were evaluating the impact of tightening global crude oil supply and the latest US tariffs on the global economy and energy demand. The initial market reaction to Trump's threat of a second tariff on Russian oil was muted. Oil prices only began to rise during yesterday's trading. On Tuesday, US crude oil traded around $71.40 per barrel. Oil prices climbed nearly 3.5% to a five-week high on Monday on concerns that supply could fall if US President Trump makes good on his threat to impose more tariffs on Russia and possibly attack Iran. Trump's threat of tariffs on Russian oil pushed oil prices higher, but the market remains skeptical. Oil prices rose slightly after US President Trump threatened to impose tariffs of 25% to 50% on countries importing Russian oil. Brent crude futures climbed and WTI also rose. However, gains were limited as traders questioned the seriousness of the proposal. The market is "fatigued" by Washington's tariff rhetoric, which suggests that the crude oil market is unlikely to react strongly without concrete action.

WTI crude oil prices have a positive short-term outlook, but be wary of geopolitical risks Technical support and rising geopolitical risks keep WTI optimistic in the short term. If prices can break through the 200-day simple moving average resistance level of around $72.19, a move towards the $73.00 (round mark), and $73.10 (February 20 high) area is possible. However, uncertainty about US policy implementation and mild reactions from major Russian oil importers such as India have curbed the upside for oil prices. Traders should watch out for any policy follow-up actions or signals from OPEC. Therefore, on the downside, the psychological level of $70.00, and $70.08 (50-day simple moving average), and then the $68.65 (early week low) level can be focused on.

Consider going long on crude oil near 71.15 today, stop loss: 71.00; target: 72.50; 72.70

Spot Gold

Gold prices retreated on Tuesday as traders booked profits, awaiting the US Liberation Day on April 2, when President Trump is expected to announce additional tariffs to improve the trade deficit imbalance. Gold/USD traded at $3,114. Gold continued its strong run on Tuesday, breaking above $3,120 an ounce for the first time and hitting another record high as uncertainty surrounding tariffs boosted safe-haven demand, sending gold prices to their strongest quarterly performance since 1986; gold prices retreated slightly after hitting another record high of $3,149. Uncertainty surrounding US trade policy and the Liberation Day on April 2 remains, and investors turned to risk aversion, flocking to the safe-haven appeal of gold. Risk appetite deteriorated as traders await the announcement of additional tariffs on Wednesday. As a result, precious metals prices have surged despite a recovery in US Treasury yields, especially the coupons on 10-year Treasury bonds. On the other hand, new favorable factors support the current all-time highs for gold prices. As the gold bull market shows no signs of slowing down, gold prices have been hitting new all-time highs for quite some time, and whenever analysts predict a peak, gold prices rise further. The continued uncertainty in tariffs has brought another round of safe-haven buying to the gold market. A small amount of profit-taking or pullback may occur on the way up. But the ongoing bullish trend remains. Fundamental support remains.

As geopolitical risks, trade tensions and inflation uncertainties persist, gold prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels. From the recent trend, the rebound of gold is expanding. So far this year, gold has risen by more than 20.0%, and the upward trend may continue due to the uncertainty in the financial markets. The daily chart shows that although the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator is in an extremely overbought state, traders should note that the most extreme level is 80 due to the aggressiveness of this fluctuation. The next resistance for gold will be the psychological hurdles of $3,150 and $3,200 (round numbers). On the other hand, the first support for the precious metal is $3,100. A break of this support would expose the March 20 high turned support at $3,057, followed by the round number of $3,000.

Consider going long on gold today before 3,110, stop loss: 3,105; target: 3,130.00; 3.135.00

AUD/USD

During Tuesday’s US session, AUD/USD hovered in the 0.6260 area as it staged a modest rebound following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy decision. The central bank kept the official cash rate unchanged at 4.10% as expected and chose not to provide clear guidance on future moves. Despite the initial gains in the Australian dollar, the pair remains capped by technical resistance areas and the overall cautious sentiment in the market, especially as traders prepare for the long-awaited tariff announcement from US President Trump. The Australian dollar attracted some buyers after the interest rate decision. In addition, upbeat Chinese economic data also provided support for the Australian dollar's gains. The latest data released on Tuesday showed that China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI improved to 51.2 in March from 50.8 in February. The data was better than the expected 51.1. Nevertheless, the upside of the currency pair may be limited due to global trade uncertainties. The market may turn cautious ahead of the reciprocal tariffs from US President Trump on Wednesday, which may weaken the Australian dollar.

AUD/USD traded stronger on Tuesday. The pair is trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart. The negative outlook for AUD/USD remains, with the exchange rate remaining below the key 100-day moving average (0.6315). Downward momentum is supported by the technical indicator 14-day relative strength index (RSI), which is below the mid-line near 45.30, supporting recent sellers. The lower boundary of the triangle pattern at 0.6225 acts as an initial support for the pair. Further declines could see prices fall to 0.6200 (round number), below which we could see 0.6187, the low of March 4. On the other hand, the first resistance for AUD/USD is at 0.6300 (market psychological level), followed by 0.6330, the high of March 26. The next resistance levels to watch are 0.6365, the 120-day moving average, and 0.6370, the upper resistance line of the symmetrical triangle pattern.

Consider going long AUD before 0.6260 today, stop loss: 0.6250; target: 0.6295; 0.6310.

GBP/USD

The British pound fell slightly against the US dollar after the release of the latest US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers' index, indicating that business conditions are deteriorating and companies are feeling the impact of tariffs. GBP/USD traded at 1.2920, little changed. GBP/USD moved in familiar territory on Tuesday, forming a familiar congestion zone as investors braced for the latest tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump. The Trump administration plans to impose a series of tariffs on nearly all of the U.S.'s trading partners starting April 2. The specifics of the Trump administration's tariff plans for this week remain vague, but the salient tariff threat remains to impose "reciprocal" tariffs on every country that imposes tariffs on imports of U.S. goods, regardless of economic background. Further retaliatory tariffs are expected against Canada and the European Union, as well as additional uniform tariffs on goods such as copper and automobiles.

The British pound has been a bit stronger than many other currencies, and it has been a standout performer. This has perhaps been the case for GBP/USD over the past two years, and even when it has fallen, it has fallen less than other currencies. The British pound has been moving sideways for a few weeks, and the market is digesting the previous sharp rise. The 1.30 level above is a psychological market resistance, while the 1.29 level below is support. A "golden cross" recently occurred, so long-term traders will consider this a bullish market. If the high of 1.3048, which was reached on November 6, 2024, can be broken, GBP/USD is likely to rise further, perhaps to the resistance level of 1.3150–1.3200. If it falls below the 1.2884 (25-day moving average), we may see GBP/USD fall to 1.2806 (200-day moving average), and the 1.2800 round number level.

Today, it is recommended to go long GBP before 1.2908, stop loss: 1.2898, target: 1.2955, 1.2960

USD/JPY

USD/JPY fell sharply to nearly 149.00 during the North American trading session on Tuesday. As the yen outperformed other currencies, the safe-haven yen faced strong selling pressure, while investors waited for US President Trump to release detailed reciprocal tariff plans on Wednesday. It then rebounded slightly below 150 and now seems to have stopped the trend of falling from the previous day's one-week high. The Bank of Japan’s Corporate Short-term Economic Outlook Survey showed that Japanese companies raised their inflation expectations for the next one, three and five years. This, in turn, supports the case for further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and has become a key factor supporting the yen. Moreover, a modest pullback in the US dollar has kept USD/JPY trading under pressure below the psychological 150.00 mark. However, the lack of confidence among yen bulls amid a positive reversal in global risk sentiment has tended to weaken this safe-haven currency. Apart from this, waning expectations of faster policy rate hikes by the Bank of Japan amid concerns about an economic slowdown due to US tariffs have acted as a headwind for the yen. Nonetheless, the hawkish outlook of the Bank of Japan has created a stark divergence with market expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon resume its rate-cutting cycle. This, in turn, suggests that the resistance path for the low-yielding yen remains to the upside.

From a technical perspective, the neutral oscillator on the daily chart and overnight resilience below the 100-day simple moving average (151.51) on the daily chart warrant caution before laying out further losses. Therefore, any subsequent decline may find some support around 149.00, close to the overnight low of 148.70 area. Some follow-through selling would confirm the negative bias and make the pair vulnerable to resuming the clear downtrend of the past three months or so. On the other hand, a break above the early week highs in the 150.25 area could push USD/JPY above the 150.75-150.80 resistance and allow bulls to recapture the 151.00 mark. Next up is the March monthly high, around the 151.30 area.

Today's recommendation is to short USD before 150.00, stop loss: 150.20; target: 149.10, 149.20

EUR/USD

EUR/USD retreated slightly during Tuesday's trading session, oscillating around the 1.0800 area. Despite the slight decline, the pair remains within its intraday range as traders evaluate different technical signals. Price action remains generally neutral, with short-term weakness contrasting with broader bullish structural support. EUR/USD failed to achieve a bullish move above the 1.0850 level on Tuesday, opening the new trading week with a rather weak performance. Investors are preparing for the latest round of tariff threats from US President Trump. The Trump administration plans to implement a wide range of tariffs from April 2, affecting almost all of the US's trading partners. Although the specific details of these tariff strategies are still unclear, the main threats include "reciprocal" tariffs on any country that imposes import tariffs on US products, regardless of the state of its economy. In addition, additional retaliatory tariffs are expected to be imposed on Canada and the European Union, and comprehensive tariffs on copper and automobiles are proposed. On the US side, the latest US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data will be released later this week. The labor data for March will serve as a "bellwether" for the impact of the Trump team's tariff plans.

EUR/USD continues to trade in the middle of a technical trap in the near term, with buyers unable to steadily rise to the 1.0900 mark, but selling pressure is also not enough to push price action back below the 200-day moving average below 1.0727. The short-term technical picture shows a mixed setup. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the daily chart is 57.70, hovering in the positive zone, while the stochastic oscillator is also neutral around 35.5. The average moving averages remain favorable and both point upward. The 25-day (1.0764) and 200-day (1.0727) moving averages have formed a "golden cross" indicating that buyers may still be in control if the currency pair remains above key support levels. Resistance is at 1.0858 (March 24 high), and a break of this level points to 1.0900 (round mark). The EUR/USD trend is slightly bearish during the day, with short-term technical support hovering at 1.0764, the 25-day moving average, and further to 1.0727 (200-day moving average), and 1.0700 (round mark) area levels.

Today it is recommended to go long on Euro before 1.0780, stop loss: 1.0770, target: 1.0850, 1.0860.

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