US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index fell sharply on Thursday, approaching the 102.00 range during the North American session. The dollar continued to slide as US President Trump announced "Liberation Day" tariffs, which led to increased investor concerns about slowing economic activity. Technical indicators also added pressure, with multiple key moving averages pointing to further downside. The US Dollar Index plunged in European trading on Thursday, having retraced almost 75% of the Trump rally since October last year. Weakness in risk assets dragged it below 102.00, and at one point saw a low of 101.27 since September last year. This came after President Trump confirmed the implementation of broad tariffs on global imports. The initial surge in yields and volatility gave way to a more cautious tone, with details showing a 10% general tariff and an additional 25% tariff on imported cars. China's tariffs are now almost 60%, the EU's tariffs are 20%, and there is also a baseline general tariff of 10%. Given that these tariffs are presented at a 'discount rate', they are also likely to be increased in the event of retaliation. The danger of a global trade war remains, so the market does not see a rebound in risky assets, thinking that all the bad news has already appeared in front of it and the situation has become extremely bad.

From a technical perspective, the US dollar index once fell to a near seven-month low of 101.27 and faced downward pressure, running between the support level of 101.00 (round mark) and the resistance level of 103.00 (round mark). The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator of the daily chart fell to the oversold zone near 26.37, so it is prudent to wait for some short-term consolidation or a modest rebound before preparing for the continuation of the continued strong downward trend. However, the broader setup seems to be firmly in favor of bearish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for the US dollar index to fall is still downward. The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) situation remains bearish, with the 20-day (103.83); and 50-day (105.81) short-term simple moving averages pointing downwards. Further strengthening the resistance ahead. The first key levels to watch in the short term include 102.53 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of 100.16 to 110.18), and 103.00 resistance areas, while challenges below may further point to 101.49 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 93.28 to 114.78), and 101.00 (round mark), unless buyers recapture the area above 103.00.

Today, consider shorting the US dollar index around 102.08, stop loss: 102.20, target: 101.60, 101.50

WTI spot crude oil

On Thursday (March 27), international oil prices rose slightly as market participants were evaluating the impact of tightening global crude oil supply and the latest US tariffs on the global economy and energy demand. The intraday decline was more than 5.8%, the largest single-day decline in nearly a month. Market sentiment was suppressed by multiple negative factors. Under the resonance of short-term technical and fundamental factors, crude oil prices entered a weak pattern. WTI Crude oil prices continued to slide from the previous day's pullback near $72.00 and attracted a lot of follow-up selling during the Asian session on Thursday. However, the commodity found some support near $66.00 (March 19 low) and is currently trading in the $66.30 area, still down more than 5.8% on the day. Building on the bearish report released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday, which showed that U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 6.2 million barrels last week. This has become a key factor suppressing crude oil prices. Although Trump's new tariff measures have not yet affected North American crude oil trade, the impact on the global trade system may weaken crude oil demand and put pressure on oil prices. The market still needs to pay close attention to the Fed's policies, OPEC's decisions and global manufacturing data to assess the further trend of oil prices. Against the backdrop of rising global trade uncertainties, oil prices may remain volatile in the short term, while the long-term trend still depends on the outlook for global economic growth.

On Thursday, WTI crude oil prices once again fell below the psychological mark of $70.00. U.S. crude oil is currently trading around $66.40 per barrel, and oil prices are facing some downward pressure in the short term. It may initially retreat to $100 per barrel. The temporary top may have encountered obstacles at the 200-day simple moving average of around $72.06. On the other hand, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the daily chart's technical indicator plummeted to the negative zone near 39.58, and oil prices may continue to fall, with a tendency to extend further in the short term. The expected downside target will be $66.00 (March 19 low), and then $65.00 (March 5 low). On the upside, the first resistance is at $68.65 (early week low), and $68.82 (14-day simple moving average), and then $70.00 (market psychological level).

Consider going long on crude oil near 66.18 today, stop loss: 66.05; target: 67.50; 68.00

Spot Gold

Gold prices fell more than 1.25% on Thursday, hitting a low of $3,054. Traders are taking profits, pushing gold prices below important key levels. It rebounded again near $3,114 at the close. The market saw all asset classes digesting the shocking announcement of US President Donald Trump. US President Trump implemented a reciprocal tariff plan for the world. Gold prices corrected in European trading, having earlier hit a record high of $3,167 in the early Asian session. Traders are cashing in some of their profits, sending the precious metal price down to $3,054 at one point. Traders are still pondering the implications of this announcement, which is a minimum standard of 10% global base tariffs, which applies to any country importing to the United States. From then on, all other earlier imposed tariffs remain in effect, meaning that, for example, the total tariff on China is 54% from this Thursday. The market is seeing safe-haven inflows, global equities are down multiple percentage points, bond yields are falling, bonds are in demand, and the dollar is depreciating against all major currencies.

Gold prices saw a logical turn on Thursday as the dust settled on the Trump administration’s implementation of reciprocal tariffs. “Buy the rumor, sell the fact” is a traditional trading adage in the market that is currently playing out. With possible negotiations and deals between the US and other countries to circumvent Trump’s tariffs, sentiment can only improve from here, which means gold prices will soften. Conversely, if countries start issuing retaliatory tariffs, gold could rise further, with new all-time highs forecast. On the upside, intraday resistance at $3,116, the 5-day MA, is the first level to recapture, followed by Monday’s high of $3,128. Beyond that, larger upside targets are $3,143 (Wednesday’s high). On the downside, $3,073.70 is the first support level, and further downside, support at $3,058 (14-day moving average) should ensure that gold does not fall back below the psychological level of $3,000.

Consider going long gold before 3,110 today, stop loss: 3,105; target: 3,130.00; 3.135.00

AUD/USD

During the American session on Thursday, AUD/USD rebounded sharply above 0.6389 as US President Trump announced lower-than-expected tariffs on its trading partners, while the US dollar fell sharply. AUD/USD narrowed its losses due to strong Chinese economic data. However, traders turned cautious as US President Trump announced large-scale global reciprocal tariffs, which may limit the upside. The Trump administration announced on Wednesday that the United States will impose a 10% base tariff on all imports and additional tariffs on about 60 countries with the largest trade imbalances with the United States. China was hit hard, with many goods facing tariffs of at least 54%. The policy announcements pushed traders into risk-off mode and exerted some selling pressure on the AUD as China is an important trading partner of Australia. Encouraging Chinese economic data released on Thursday could help limit the AUD's losses. China's Caixin Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) improved to 51.9 in March from 51.4 in February, stronger than the expected 51.6. On the other hand, concerns about a slowdown in the US economy could weaken the dollar in the short term.

The technical picture on the daily chart shows indecision. The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) technical indicator is printing new red bars, suggesting bearish momentum. However, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is rebounding sharply above 54, suggesting consolidation rather than a clear trend direction. On the upside, resistance is at 0.6391 (March 18 high) level, and a decisive push above the 2025 peak of 0.6409 (February 21) could pave the way for a test of the 200-day simple moving average at 0.6499. If sellers regain control, initial support will be seen at 0.6300 (a psychological barrier). A break below will open the door for a retest of the 75-day SMA at 0.6272, and 0.6257 (April 2 low).

Consider going long AUD today before 0.6313, stop loss: 0.6300; target: 0.6350; 0.6360

GBP/USD

During Thursday's American session, GBP/USD surged above 1.3200, hitting its highest level in nearly six months. GBP/USD surged as US President Donald Trump unveiled lower-than-expected tariffs on its trading partners, while the US dollar fell sharply. The US dollar index fell below 102. President Trump announced a 10% base tariff on all products entering the United States, and additional specific tariffs on most trading partners, whose leaders have threatened to take countermeasures. Market participants expect that the full implementation of the tariffs will lead to a recession in the US economy. This scenario supports the need for further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, even though the market knows that higher tariffs also raise concerns about continued inflation. Since entering the White House 72 days ago, President Trump's tariff threats have continued, and the details of the specific tariff proposals remain complex.

From the daily chart, GBP/USD finally broke through the psychological 1.3000 mark again, and buying pushed the price to a six-month high of 1.3207. Since the low of 1.2099 in mid-January, GBP/USD has been running in a bullish trend line breakout, and the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) has risen sharply to 74 and maintained an upward trend, showing that the exchange rate still has the strength to climb upward. If GBP/USD can continue to stay above 1.3100 without falling, it may usher in a larger breakthrough to the high of 1.3266 on August 27 last year, and the 1.3300 round mark. On the other hand, if sellers push the exchange rate down to 1.3100, the low of March 18, and 1.3048 (the high of November 6 last year), then the next support is at the 1.3000 (market psychological level) level.

Today, it is recommended to go long on GBP before 1.3080, stop loss: 1.3070, target: 1.3140, 1.3150

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY currency pair plunged to a six-month low of 145.20 during the European/American session on Thursday, and then rebounded to close slightly above 146, as investors rushed to seek shelter in traditional safe-haven assets due to US President Trump's extensive trade tariffs. In fact, this development increases the risk of an escalation of the trade war, which may disrupt global free trade and have a negative impact on the world economy. This caused shocks in global financial markets and strongly pushed the yen to strengthen. At the same time, safe-haven flows caused most global government bond yields to plummet. Moreover, dovish Fed expectations dragged the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield to fresh year lows. This exacerbated the intraday decline in the US dollar, taking it to its lowest level since October last year and adding to selling pressure on USD/JPY. Meanwhile, traders began pricing in the possibility of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) amid signs of accelerating domestic inflation. This in turn should help the yen’s relative performance and coupled with the general bearish sentiment surrounding the US dollar, suggests a resistance path to the downside for USD/JPY.

From a technical perspective, the intraday decline below the 100-hour simple moving average (149.40) on the 4-hour chart comes right on top of the recent breakout of a multi-week ascending channel. This, combined with bearish oscillators on the daily chart, supports the prospect of further near-term USD/JPY depreciation. Therefore, a sustained decline below the round-number support of 146.60 would open up the possibility of a move towards the 145.20 (Thursday’s low) and 145.50 mark area, with 144.00 (market psychological mark) looking like an obvious key support level thereafter. On the other hand, any attempted rebound may now encounter some resistance around the 147.00 round mark. However, a sustained rise could trigger a short-term covering rebound towards the market's psychological 148.00-148.18 (March 20 low) area. That said, further gains could attract new selling around 149.00.

Today, it is recommended to short the US dollar before 146.20, stop loss: 146.50; target: 145.20, 145.00

EUR/USD

During the mid-session trading session in Europe/America on Thursday, the EUR/USD pair staged a sharp rebound, surging above the psychological 1.1000 level to a seven-month high of 1.1146. It gave back to around 1.1051 before the close, as the dollar was hit hard by the long-term transformation of the US economy. The dollar index, which measures the value of the US dollar against six major currencies, plunged to just above 101.00, the lowest level in nearly six months. The tariffs announced by President Trump may cause short-term volatility in the economy, but are positive for the long-term outlook. His comments came after Trump unveiled the planned reciprocal tariffs. Trump announced a 10% base tariff on all goods imported into the United States, and additional specific tariffs on most trading partners. Leaders of some of the targeted countries threatened to retaliate with countermeasures. Looking ahead, investors will focus on the US non-farm payrolls data for March, which will be released on Friday. The official employment data will affect market expectations of the outlook for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

EUR/USD rose to a near seven-month high near 1.1146 on Thursday after a decisive breakout above the former resistance of 1.0955, trading at levels not seen since early September. The short-term outlook for the major currency pair has turned extremely bullish as the 20-day exponential moving average resumed its upward trend. The RSI, a technical indicator on the daily chart, jumped above 70.00 after cooling to near 60.00, suggesting that bullish momentum has resumed. Downward, 1.1000 (market psychological barrier) will be the first support, followed by the mid-March resistance range around 1.0955. Conversely, 1.1146 (Thursday's high) is the first resistance, then 1.1200 mark, and the September 25 high of 1.1214 will be the key obstacles for euro bulls.

Today it is recommended to go long on Euro before 1.1038, stop loss: 1.1020, target: 1.1085, 1.1100.

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